The Frontstretch: The Frontstretch Five: Reasons Why Proposed Chase Changes Would Hurt, Not Help, the Sport by Amy Henderson -- Monday January 20, 2014

Go to site navigation Go to article

Welcome to the Frontstretch Five, a brand-new column you just might be seeing more of in 2014! Each week, Amy Henderson takes a look at the racing, the drivers, and the storylines that drive NASCAR and puts together a list of five people, places, things, and ideas surrounding a piece of the sport. In the debut column, Amy takes a look at some rumored changes to the championship format for 2014. Those include a 16-driver Chase field, made up exclusively of race winners plus a bracket-style elimination during the Chase which would culminate in a winner-take-all, two-driver shootout for the Cup title in the Homestead season finale.

Here are five reasons why she says these changes would hurt, not help, the sport.

NASCAR’s Chase, instead of waving the white flag of surrender is poised for its biggest (and what some might say outrageous) changes yet come 2014.

1. Fans want fewer gimmicks, not more.

When NASCAR unveiled the original Chase system for the 2004 season, many race fans were not enamored. And when that first Chase concluded, a good number were even less enamored after Kurt Busch, who would have finished a fairly distant fourth under the previous format, won the title. The Chase, many fans agreed, was a gimmick. Some said it was to boost late-season ratings and compete with the NFL for viewers on Sundays. Others said it was an attempt to make racing more exciting, created in a era where the cars had become so aerodynamically dependent that passing was at a premium. Still others said it was in response to Matt Kenseth’s dominance in 2003, where he led the series points by 354 with ten races to go (though he eventually won by a much smaller margin of only 90).

Whatever the reason, though, many fans were unhappy with the Chase… and the majority still haven’t warmed up to it. When NASCAR’s official website ran a fan poll a year or so ago, asking fans their opinion on the system, almost 80% said they don’t like the Chase system and wanted NASCAR to scrap it. That’s a pretty clear-cut majority, even for a non-scientific poll.

Observers need look no further than the Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series to see for themselves that a season-long championship battle can be a thriller. The NNS title was decided in the closing laps of the final race of the year; that happened with no eliminations, no Chase, no gimmicks at all. The CWTS title was won in a landslide, by comparison but there was also little complaining about that from fans. Most largely acknowledged that Matt Crafton deserved to win in a landslide after his stellar season. Fans weren’t lamenting the lack of a points reset to close up the field in those series, nor were they calling for a Chase-style format. In general, when a Chase is suggested for those series, fans balk, because they simply don’t want it.

So, if most of NASCAR Nation would like to get rid of the Chase, getting back to a season-long championship, it makes little sense to try and increase their interest by rearranging the whole thing to add more fixes and false excitement. A winner-take all at Homestead might sound exciting, but is it really a sound decision when the champion crowned could potentially be a driver who would have finished outside the top ten, or even the top 15 in points even under the current Chase system? The answer to that is probably obvious to most race fans.

2. It cheapens the championship.

As noted above, the proposed new system could set up a scenario in which a driver far down in actual points earned could potentially win the title. Had the 2013 Chase used the qualifications for the Chase being mulled over (the top 16 race winners), David Ragan would have made the Chase. Ragan finished 28th in Cup points in 2013, not even the best among his small-team brethren. And with a head-to-head format in the Chase rather than accumulated points, it’s possible a driver like Ragan could get lucky and win the title. Sure, fans love an underdog, and Ragan’s win was one of the best feel-good stories of 2013. But should a driver outside the top 20 in points really have a chance to win the season championship?

Many fans were upset in 2004, when Busch won what many perceived to be Jeff Gordon’s rightful title after Gordon accumulated the most points overall. The same thing happened in 2007 (Jimmie Johnson won the Chase title while Gordon would have won under the previous format), 2008 (Johnson – Chase, Carl Edwards – old format), 2010 (Johnson – Chase, Kevin Harvick – old format), and 2011 (Tony Stewart – Chase, Edwards – old format). And each time that happens, there was fan outcry that the “real” champion didn’t win. There is also a feeling amongst many fans that should Jimmie Johnson win seven titles, they won’t mean as much as those of Richard Petty or Dale Earnhardt, who didn’t have the Chase format for any of their seven championships.

So how would it go over with fans if the champion would have finished 20th in points, even under the current Chase system? Probably not well. Even if you take into account that everyone probably would have raced differently if the Chase were not in place, many fans feel the title is already cheapened. Opening it up further to the possibility of a team that’s truly not championship-caliber is only going to make the perception that the title is meaningless more pronounced.

Even the NFL-turned-NASCAR’s Joe Gibbs will tell you his old sport is very different from what stock car racing fires up for fans every Sunday.

3. This is not the NFL.

Elimination-style playoff formats work in other sports because there are two teams playing at a time. But in NASCAR, there are 43 teams for every race who, even if not a championship factor, influence their outcome.

That means a title could be completely out of a team’s hands. While it’s possible under any format to get caught in someone else’s problems, finishing poorly as a result, in a winner-take-all elimination, a team could lose an otherwise deserved title because of someone else’s mistake. That’s not what sports should be about. If a football team makes too many mistakes, they’ll lose a game, and the same is true in racing. But imagine if a team lost the Super Bowl because their quarterback got taken out of the game by a player from a team that wasn’t even playing for the title, because there were two games going on on the same field at the same time. There would be complete outrage from football fans, and rightfully so.

As absurd as that scenario sounds, it makes using a playoff format that works in other sports equally absurd in NASCAR, where there are 43 teams on the track each week, all running their own race toward their own goals. The reason that a season-long championship worked in NASCAR for more than 50 years is because of the unpredictability factor. The best teams will, over an entire season, overcome the obstacles and contend for a title despite the risks. The rest simply won’t, and that’s not a bad thing.

If NASCAR wants to have long-term success among the other major sports in America, the sanctioning body needs to recognize that racing is not comparable to a stick-and-ball sport, and that’s why many fans choose it to begin with. Trying to contend for viewers with the NFL by trying to be more like the NFL isn’t going to win anyone over. Why would fans of other sports stop watching those in favor of a sport that has tried to make itself the same? Answer: they won’t. They’ll choose the sport that most appeals to them on its own merits. And a contrived, overhyped championship season that puts forth an almost satirical imitation of another sport entirely isn’t going to have merit with current fans or the ones NASCAR is trying to lure from other sports.

4. It’s not going to improve the racing from week to week.

Sure, it might make a few races more interesting here and there, but by and large, teams aren’t going to change their approach to an entire 500-mile event. They know that in order to win, they must first make it to the end of the race, and they aren’t going to take chances that might risk that halfway through.

The real problem with individual races is twofold, and it has little to do with the championship format at all. First, it’s the race cars themselves—they’re too fast and too aerodynamically dependent as a result that they don’t handle well when they’re actually racing side-by-side. If a driver has the choice between fighting his racecar for a position 150 miles into a 500-mile event, possibly crashing in the process, or riding it out for a while, well… sometimes he’s going to choose to ride it out. Even at the end of a race, with points on the line, a driver isn’t going to risk crashing and finishing in the bottom 10 when he can finish with a top 5, but not a win. A new format won’t change that.

The other problem is some fans’ perception that in order to be an exciting race, there has to be door-to-door racing for the lead on every lap and a margin of victory of less than a car length. While it would great to have a battle like Ricky Craven and Kurt Busch waged in the 2003 Southern 500, every week it’s not a realistic expectation. Sometimes, a driver just has a dominant day. Sometimes, it’s a fuel mileage race. Sometimes, a driver’s car just isn’t good enough to make that late-race run. And that’s all OK. It’s been part of the game since racing began, and casual observers need to understand how this sport works. If it can be improved without manipulating the actual process, such as by making cars easier to pass with or by giving a few more points to race winners, that’s great. What’s not a good idea is trying to manipulate the fundamental basis of the sport; that’s what unfolds naturally on the racetrack through strategy and skill.

A new title format also can’t magically transform what happens on the racetrack every week because there are too many nuances to the sport, too many variables, too much at stake for teams. Trying to manipulate races comes across as gimmickry; that isn’t what race fans want to see.

5. It’s not going to boost ratings long-term, either.

Sure, more people might tune in to an elimination race for the season finale, but overall, ratings are probably a pretty accurate reflection of what the sport’s fan base is right now. They’re down from the early 2000s because the fad ended. The people who tuned in when the sport was the big trend at the water cooler have, for the most part, left and moved on to the next trend. Some new, true fans were created during the boom, but others were lost as the sport began to change and cater to a newer breed of race fan – the video game generation of a thrill a minute. With the coolness worn off, what’s left is a fan base whose loyalty is still a bit tenuous. Many diehards, who would plan weekends around races have become, by their own admission, casual fans who might tune in if there’s nothing better on.

The rumored changes aren’t going to lure NFL diehards from their games any more than an NFL game is going to lure a hardcore race fan away from a race. But casual fans are not the same as the fanatics, and they’re going to choose based on what’s in front of them on a given day. Are they going to choose the sport that has exciting, unforced action, or the one that’s been shaped and trimmed and squeezed in an attempt to make it fit a mold it was never meant to fit? They might tune in to see the circus at first, but if there’s no substance, they aren’t going to stay. And it’s substance that this proposed format is lacking. It feels contrived because it is contrived, even more so than the original Chase… and in the end, people will see through that, making it a hard sell to both devoted and casual fans.

Connect with Amy!

Contact Amy Henderson

NASCAR NEWS, RIGHT TO YOUR INBOXAND IT’S FREE.
The Frontstretch Newsletter, back in 2014 gives you more of the daily news, commentary, and racing features from your favorite writers you know and love. Don’t waste another minute – click here to sign up now. We’re here to make sure you stay informed … so make sure you jump on for the ride!

Today on the Frontstretch:
Championship Caliber? What Does That Even Mean?
Mirror Driving: Winning Vs. Points, Needing a Boost, and The Lady’s Last Dance?
Nuts for Nationwide: The Curious Case of Elliott Sadler
Happiness Is…Arrogance, Less, Next, and the Outdoors
Frontstretch Foto Funnies: It’s Not Gonna Fit…
FREE NEWSLETTER! CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP

 

©2000 - 2008 Amy Henderson and Frontstetch.com. Thanks for visiting the Frontstretch!

DoninAjax
01/20/2014 11:59 PM
permalink

If there was no chase, there wouldn’t have to be any “tweaks” needed. The fact that Brian’s brilliant (to him and his toadies) idea is being changed every year says volumes about its’ necessity. But Brian’s ego, like Bud Lite in baseball and Gary Bettman in the NHL, will never allow him to get rid of it. The NFL is the only league that will change the rules and cancel the changes if they don’t work out. You can put lipstick on a pig but it is still a pig.

kyboy88
01/21/2014 09:57 AM
permalink

Absolutely agree with the article. Nascar has gotten itself in trouble by trying to draw in the casual, fair weather fans. These same fans dont go to races, and usually just watch the last 50 laps. The chase format has been in place for almost 10 years, I say just leave it alone. Nascar seems to forget its root every few years. Remember when Digger cartoons were part of pre-race? Geez Louise!!!

Chris in TX
01/21/2014 10:01 AM
permalink

Pretty sure this will not be a popular response (conceding that there is no intrinsic value in a response on the internet, regardless of content)

I actually like the idea, better than the current sort of “halfway” implementation. The current chase definitely feels like they want to have a March Madness type tournament, but they’ve got one foot in, one foot out. Elimination during “rounds” is a critical piece in that. The one caveat that I have is: There needs to be a suitable reward for “winning” the regular season. In the NHL, there’s a trophy (President’s Trophy) for the regular season points champion. This seems to be a good plan for Nascar. Keep in mind, that in the NHL, more often than not, the President’s Trophy winner doesn’t get the Stanley Cup.

But, I personally think the whole “reward consistency” thing is way overdone in Nascar. Other racing series reward winning with a higher percentage of the points, and a bigger gap to second. Nascar’s system still punishes a bad day more than it rewards a good day. A points system shouldn’t reward mediocrity. I doubt too many drivers in competitive equipment show up with a goal of something other than winning.

Sue Rarick
01/21/2014 10:06 AM
permalink

They might get a bump in the ratings for the first shoot-out championship but if the winner of the championship happens to finish 10th in the race it will seem ridiculous to the first time viewer and I doubt they will be back for the second.

The casual viewer would expect the winner of the race to be the champion.

Andy D
01/21/2014 10:29 AM
permalink

If you want to experiment to see if something might be better, you don’t do it with your marquee product. Ask Coca-Cola about that.

If NASCAR wants to tamper with the chase, implement the proposed changes in the K&N series or trucks. If it works, great! If it doesn’t, you haven’t blown up the company.

GinaV24
01/21/2014 11:24 AM
permalink

Good article, Amy. it’s a shame that Brian France rules and what the fans want is not a big deal for him. As long as NASCAR & the France family get their $ from TV, sponsors & the tracks (although how long that will keep up considering the lack of people in the seats), he will just continue to tweak it.

Never mind that there may be fewer & fewer people watching.

AndyD has it right, Coca Cola tried it, found out it didn’t work and were SMART enough to backtrack in a hurry. Brainless isn’t that smart, he’ll just keep going in the direction he chooses, no matter how bad the results.

Carl D.
01/21/2014 11:48 AM
permalink

Amy…

While your five points are all valid and well thought out, I’m going to “sort of” agree with Chris and say this will be an improvement over the current format simply because it puts a much bigger premium on winning races (too much, maybe?), but I still say no chase is better than any of the convoluted systems we’ve had under Brian’s regime.

I also agree with Andy D.. if Nascar wanted to experiment with a new championship format, why didn’t they try it with the lower-tier series first and not with cup? Rhetorical question, I know, but it sure seems that common sense ain’t so common at One Daytona Blvd.

Upstate24fan
01/21/2014 12:42 PM
permalink

This is what I was afraid of when Jimmie won again. They floated this idea in 2010, but didn’t go through with it. I’ve grown to accept the Chase, but this change would be a disaster. I really hate the idea that a team could be dominant all year long/win a bunch of races, but get bit by the racing gods at Homestead and robbed of a title.

Brian France lives in this little bubble where he thinks he needs a “game 7” moment every year. I’m sorry but the sports that have playoff series don’t always get a “game 7”. This plan is like Baseball saying, “well the World Series hasn’t gone beyond game 5 the last couple of years, so we are going to reset the Series score after game 3 to make it more exciting”. I think most sports fans can see through gimmicks and manipulation. This will blow up in their faces especially if there is an absurd result or Jr. gets screwed.

If they want to incentivize winning more lets try something simple, like awarding more points to the race winner, restructuring the points to make point leads less safe? I’ve even ok with the idea of using wins as the primary way to qualify for the Chase, but not this nonsense of hitting the reset button 3 more times in the last 10 races. Why don’t they just have a demolition derby at Homestead, that would be entertaining too.

Dan
01/21/2014 12:53 PM
permalink

Followed Nascar for the past 50 years on and off, mostly on, so not new to it. I say dump the Chase, forget points, and let them race for the win every week. Want a champion at seasons end? The driver with the most wins gets it. This way there is no points racing. Petty was my guy back in the days and we all know who has the most wins ever. Yeah you might say if a driver is way out front in wins near season’s end people will lose interest. I watch races to see who can win, not who can gain the most points.

kb
01/21/2014 02:02 PM
permalink

Good article all true, what worries me is some “journalists” actually seem to embrace the idea, I say they aren’t real race fans. The overwhelming majority of people all over the internet have voiced serious displeasure with this latest round of absurdity from King Brian, will he listen? Of course not, he is counting his money at his castle in Daytona. This is a scary man.

Jerome
01/21/2014 03:55 PM
permalink

What happens when we don’t get an exciting final race? Reset the points during the race and have a G-W-C to determine the champion? Brian France is a moron and he, and the dumb changes he has implemented,is the reason I no longer watch. I used to be one of those who plannedmy entire weekend around watching or going to a race. No more. France keeps saying “we are listening to the fan”; what a crock. If he was listening the chase would be gone and so would he.

modified7
01/21/2014 04:08 PM
permalink

Bill Jr. would kick Brian’s rearend. Nascar built it’s following on good hard racing and car owners and drivers had to race every week if they where chasing a championship. The wood Brothers with Pearson ran selected races to win, not for championships.Under Brian’s brain storm, the only thing that is consistant is he keeps changing things to compete with the NFL and other sports. Nascar did not rise to it’s popularity by chasing NFL. Since Brian has become KING, the sport continues to die because of his tampering. It will continue downward till someone will admit they have tampered to much. Under the New proposed system, you don’t have to compete every week. Just race for the wins at tracks where you have at least 75% chance to win. The first class teams like the Hendrick and Gibbs like could adapt to consider winning only. If either had a problem in a race and had to loose a few laps, there would be no incentive to get back in the race. Bottom line is if Nascar wants to grow like it was in the 90’s, Scrap the chase and let them race. Run more short tracks, paved and dirt and those chasing championships will race at all venues. And give the locals a chance to compete. That will stir more positive reaction from the fans and teams. Only then, Nascar will climb back to the top.

Bill B
01/21/2014 05:58 PM
permalink

It’s obvious that NASCAR’s leadership does not care what fans think. Oh they provide lip service stating that they do but every decision they make proves the opposite. I was really looking forward to this season. I’m not sure why but more than I’ve been looking forward for several years. Now with this news it just makes me dread dealing with the whole mess.

GinaV24
01/21/2014 07:10 PM
permalink

After reading some of the articles, I had tweeted Moody that I didn’t like the idea. As expected, I got a snarky response, but then again, that kind of commentary and response is why I cancelled my sirius radio subscription. I decided not to continue to waste my $ when I got angry listening to the responses from both the morning drive team and then whatever Moody’s evening show is. Sorry, I realize this is off topic except that it goes to show the way that many of the paid NASCAR media will embrace anything NASCAR says and the fans will just have to either accept it or stop following the sport.

BillB, I agree, NASCAR doesn’t care a whit about the fans at least not since BZF took over.

bign
01/22/2014 12:53 AM
permalink

It’s all about money and getting them Hendrick cars (all of them) in the show. And if it looks like one might not make it, why nascar can go fishing again for some light connecting rods.

Listen, just go ahead and give Jimmie two more championships, then dump the chase. Sell JJ as the greatest ever then let’s get back to real racing without gimmicks.

Razz
01/25/2014 03:30 AM
permalink

Does anybody other than Brian France miss IROC?

Yeah .. didn’t think so.

phil h
01/26/2014 09:03 PM
permalink

in your point taken in number 2.

yep,there it is. proving that Johnson would only have half the titles he’s credited for if the chase had never been implemented.
Jeff Gordon would be a six time champion and not JJ.

oh well, it is what it is. However, I am glad you pointed that out for all to see! :)

Tony
01/27/2014 07:02 AM
permalink

There’s nothing so bad that they can’t make it worse.

 

Contact Amy Henderson

Recent articles from Amy Henderson:

Earnhardt Ganassi Racing Announces Partnership with Cessna, Textron
Fans To Decide Format of Sprint Unlimited at Daytona
UNOH and Kentucky Speedway Extend Sponsorship Agreement
Earnhardt Out For Charlotte and Kansas After Talldega Concussion
Piquet, Jr. Wins K&N East Opener

Want to know more about Amy or see an archive of all of her articles? Check out her bio page for more information.