The Frontstretch: Fantasy Picks 'N' Pans: Michigan "2" by Cami Starr -- Wednesday August 16, 2006

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Fantasy Picks 'N' Pans: Michigan "2"

Cami Starr · Wednesday August 16, 2006

 

How ironic that with all of the Silly Season news and mini courtroom drama recently, this weekend's race marks the one year anniversary of Jeremy Mayfield's final win at Evernham Motorsports. While fans debate who screwed who over, most don't deny the separation was best for both parties. Now, we get to sit back and watch to see how the seats fill up for the remainder of this year and next. But before we jump the gun and look ahead to 2007, let’s not forget there’s a long way to go yet in the current season. Just four races from the Chase cutoff, drivers are in three groups: in the Chase, hoping for a miracle, and no chance in hell.

Which drivers fall into the group that deserves a look for your fantasy team? Let's find out:

Race Info
GFS Marketplace 400
Michigan International Speedway
2:00pm on TNT
2005 Pole Sitter: Joe Nemechek
2005 Race Winner: Jeremy Mayfield

Mike's Keys to the Race

As the circuit heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan, history will have a very good chance of repeating itself. Historically, over that last five or six years, Roush Racing has been extremely strong at this track, winning four of the last nine races held here. Picking a Roushketeer is certainly going to be a safe bet.

Meanwhile, the big issue to be aware of on track with this two mile oval is fuel, as gas mileage can come into play. Dodge’s first win after coming back to the series was a fuel mileage win at Michigan back in 2001, and last year’s race was also a mileage race.

Cami's Instant Replay

Banking on history and a little bit of luck, Slugger Labbe made the call of the race and led Jeremy Mayfield and the No. 19 team to victory in last year's GFS Marketplace 400. Knowing that the race tends to stay green in the final laps, Labbe rolled the dice and brought Mayfield's Dodge in for the last time with 52 laps remaining. Despite not being a contender all day, the No. 19 car took the lead with six laps to go as others peeled off the track for fuel. Scott Riggs employed a similar strategy and earned a career best second place finish, while Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards, two drivers who raced for the lead before the last round of green flag pit stops, finished third and fourth, respectively. Tony Stewart was able to extend his point lead over Jimmie Johnson in the standings by coming home with a fifth place finish.

Mike's Picks

Crank ‘Em Up

Matt Kenseth finished 13th in the Spring race at Michigan, but that was his first finish outside of the Top 10 at MIS since 2002. Since he started running at Michigan back in 1999, Kenseth has only finished outside the Top 15 once, with one win and nine top 10s to his credit in 14 starts.

Jeff Burton has had a long run of strong finishes this season, as he has not placed outside of the Top 15 since the sixth race of the year at Martinsville. There is no reason to believe that streak will stop this weekend. Although Burton hasn’t had many Top 10 finishes at Michigan recently, he has had four 11th place results in the last seven races, and his average finish at Michigan is 12.5. Look for Burton’s momentum to continue.

Sit ‘Em Down

Although his average finish at MIS is 12.5, just like Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon’s luck at the track has not been very good the last few years. He only has three Top 10s in the last eight races held at the track. Gordon does have two wins in his last 10 races this season, but he only has four Top 10s and three finishes of 34th or worse, a surefire sign of inconsistency. The racing gods are not smiling on the No. 24 team right now, so this is probably a good weekend to leave Jeff on the sidelines.

Don’t look for Jamie McMurray to capitalize on any Watkins Glen momentum. He has run seven races at Michigan, and out of those races he only has three Top 15 finishes, with an average finishing position of 21st. Prior to his third place finish last week, McMurray had finishes of 36th, 33rd, 20th, and 26th. Although it’s going against the philosophy of picking Roush drivers, McMurray is certainly not worthy of putting in your lineup this week.

Roll The Dice

Even though his average finish is 19.3 and he only has three Top 10 finishes in 14 races at MIS, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is worth a shot at the craps table. He finished third in the Spring race, and said this past week that the team hit on something there in that race that is going to make them much faster than they have been in the past. This Sunday will either begin Junior’s push to the Chase…or, his fall from grace.

Cami's Picks

Crank ‘Em Up

With three Top 10s in the last four races, Carl Edwards is on a hot streak, and should see that continue this weekend at MIS. In four starts at Michigan, Edwards has never finished outside the Top 10, and he was runner up to Kasey Kahne here in June. Roush Racing certainly has found an edge at Michigan, and looking at Carl's results, he fits right into that mold of success.

Greg Biffle is another Roush Racing driver that has MIS figured out. In seven career races at Michigan, Biffle has two wins and only two finishes outside the Top 10. With his Chase hopes on life support after last weekend's debacle at Watkins Glen, his only hope of making the Chase is to put in a top notch effort here this weekend. With his past history here, it's not a stretch to say that he can back that up.

Sit ‘Em Down

Yes, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. did finish third at Michigan in June, but remember, the race was called early for rain. He did have a decent car that day, and managed to run up front with the leaders and even lead the race on two occasions. Looking at his stats at Michigan, that is more the exception than the norm, though; in his previous 13 starts, Junior had managed to crack the Top 10 just twice. With an average finish of only 19.3, Junior may be somebody you want to leave on the bench this week.

Don't let Robby Gordon's finish at Watkins Glen last week lure you into thinking he's on a roll right now. While he certainly has improved this year in performance and durability, Michigan isn't the track to use Robby at to see if his momentum will carry him for another week. His average finish at Michigan is a dismal 26.3, and in 11 starts, he has earned only one Top 10. Best to wait until next year's road course or maybe Loudon before pulling Gordon off the shelf again.

Roll The Dice

I'm going way out on a limb here and gambling on Elliott Sadler. I know next to nothing has gone right for Sadler or the No. 19 team this year, but just think of what a great storyline it would be if they come together for a good finish in their first race together. I'm not saying he'll make it back-to-back August Michigan wins for the team, but a Top 10 or 15 run isn't out of the question here. Sadler is coming off his best finish in months at Watkins Glen, his final race with RYR, and has run fairly decent at MIS in the past. Call it a hunch, women's intuition, or you may just call me crazy…but Sadler could be worth a look.

Trash Talk:

Cami: Nice job with Harvick last week. I see you’re banking on Burton finally winning to give you two in a row.
Mike: I don’t know about winning, but I think a Top 10 should be easily within Burton’s reach. I actually think Kenseth has the real shot at winning. Speaking of Roush, I see you are putting all of your eggs in their basket. Hope they don’t run into one of those engine deals like Hendrick did there a couple of years ago.
Cami: Thanks for the vote of confidence. But it’s hard not to go with Roush when their drivers have 3 of the 4 best averages. Sorenson being in there with the best is kind of a fluke.
Mike: Yeah, when it is a one race average, you can’t put much faith in it.
Cami: I see we are on opposite sides of the table on Junior.
Mike: Well, mine is a Roll The Dice pick. Like I said, his track record there isn’t much in a Cup car, but he said they found something, and their intermediate efforts have been picking up this year.
Cami: I’m still not convinced he’s recovered yet from back-to-back 43rd place finishes. And that 3rd at Michigan in June might not have been that great if the race would have went the full distance.
Mike: He was relatively strong all day, though. It wasn’t like it was a pit strategy call that gave it to him. Now, your roll the dice pick, that is a real stretch.
Cami: Yeah, I figure if you’re gonna gamble… gamble big.
Mike: That’s why it is the roll of the dice. I mean, you never know…you could have that new team bounce in performance. I just don’t think the No. 19 has it together enough to put much faith in them though.
Cami: I think it’s feast or famine in that situation…it will be either a good run or a real crappy run. But it would be big news if they came in and ran well the first time out.
Mike: Oh, yeah. Ray Ray would look like a genius if that happened.
Cami: I went back and forth on it, but like I said it’s a hunch. I’ve been wrong before…like Jimmie Johnson at Indy.
Mike: Yes, you have. Well, we’ll just have to see how it pans out.

Scorecard

Weekly Results:    
       
  Crank Em Up Sit Em Down Roll the Dice
Mike Harvick- 1st Kahne- 22nd Pruett- 6th
  J. Gordon- 13th Kenseth- 17th  
       
Cami Stewart- 2nd Biffle- 38th Hamlin- 10th
  Martin- 20th Fellows- 32nd  
       
Season Averages:    
       
Mike 19.1 18.1 16.7
Cami 9.2 21.7 14.5

DON’T FORGET … IT’S WEDNESDAY!! NEW CONTENT ALL OVER THE MAIN PAGE!

Many fans are frequent Frontstretch visitors, but how many actually scroll all the way down to the bottom of our main page? Well, now we’ve given you a reason to give our site a few extra clicks. On the right-hand side of the main page, we’ve brought back our popular Foto Funnies feature poking fun at the pictures of the week, a perfect match for the Top Ten always located in your bottom right-hand corner. Add in a main page poll, a Carey and Coffey blog, and there’s a brand new destination spot for Wednesday content. It’s just the latest way to give you the best NASCAR news, commentary, info, and entertainment anywhere on the web!

 

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blu
08/17/2006 08:01 AM
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Sadler?? Cami??Now THAT is a roll!!

No one likes Bowyer for a roll guy??9 top 15 this year folks!!
I like Jr for a roll too though Mike!Good call Ive a feeling!

blu
08/17/2006 08:06 AM
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PS: Mike I TOLD ya ya shoulda took Tony last week!! LOLOL (I Just couldnt resist bud. :))
“King of the road courses” HAH!!!
He better look at that mirror REAL, REAL hard!!

Mike
08/17/2006 09:26 PM
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Cami beat me to him Blu. I would have taken him if she hadn’t.

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