The Frontstretch: Winners and Losers: The Harsh Reality of a Kensethless Roush by Bryan Davis Keith -- Monday July 2, 2012

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Winners and Losers: The Harsh Reality of a Kensethless Roush

Bryan Davis Keith · Monday July 2, 2012

 

When one thinks of stability with regard to Sprint Cup racing, it’s likely that one thinks of Matt Kenseth and his iconic No. 17 Ford. The 2003 Cup champion has, for more than a decade, been a continual race winner and Chase contender, a rock of composure and consistency complimented by a “Killer Bees” pit crew that never falters.

It’s hardly surprising that a driver that’s proven unflappable (sans when an unstable teammate appears ready to go 15 rounds on Martinsville’s pit road) wants stability as much he’s been associated with it. With Penske Racing coming back to the blue oval for 2013 and the sponsorship well at Roush Fenway Racing proving so dry that both the Nationwide and Cup programs have had to contract in the past 12 months, one can hardly blame Kenseth for taking a deal in hand for the next season and beyond. This move, drastic as it may be, is not surprising.

But Kenseth’s decision to leave Roush caught someone off guard… the organization’s namesake.

Though McMurray and Ragan are long gone from the Roush stables, the impending departure of Matt Kenseth is arguably the most significant event for the organization in the last decade.

“I will say that I was as surprised as most of you must have been when I learned that he would not be signing with us to go forward” Jack Roush told the media Friday at Kentucky. “It was a surprise and I had no idea that we were at that point.”

It was as drastic a departure from Roush’s last contract-related press conference in August, when the owner and Carl Edwards all but read a script to the media at Pocono that made their extensive negotiations seem like a handshake deal at the local pub, even going as far as to set ground rules for what questions could and could not be asked of Cousin Carl’s reportedly epic package. On that day, Jack Roush was in total control… of his superstar, of the press, of the Ford Racing flagship.

Friday at Kentucky was not an instance of control. It was more an exhalation, an attempt to come to terms with perhaps the greatest blow this organization could have to absorb: the team’s only active Cup champion, the senior bedrock, a man who as Roush put it has “his DNA… all over the things that we are known for and our success” is gone following this year.

That press conference may go down as the moment where the gravity of the situation hit the longtime Ford owner… because the ramifications for this deal are deep. As mentioned, Kenseth is the only driver in the fold at Roush with a Cup title under his belt; Greg Biffle, the new senior in the RFR camp for 2013, finished runner-up in the rookie of the year battle that same 2003 campaign. It is Kenseth who has the longest developed relationship with general manager Robbie Reiser. And in a 2012 campaign that sees Kenseth leading the points on the strength of his second Daytona 500 title in four seasons, the same Carl Edwards that Jack Roush did everything (including opening the company books) to keep in the fold sits winless outside the top 10 in points. The multi-million dollar franchise would miss NASCAR’s playoffs if they started today.

And as for the replacement driver tabbed, one Ricky Stenhouse Jr… it is true that Stenhouse has earned a great deal of respect, and rightfully so, for both his tenacity after a horrendous first half of 2010 and for his aggressive nature on the track. There’s also that 2011 Nationwide Series championship and the strong 11th place showing he put together in his Cup debut during last year’s Coca-Cola 600.

But in moving Stenhouse to Kenseth’s seat, none of the “problems” facing the No. 17 team are solved. Sure, Roush has had to float races to keep Kenseth racing this year, unable to find a full season of backing for a Cup car. This same organization has been trying for twice that long to find full-time backing for Stenhouse at just the Nationwide Series level… and they have failed. The sponsorship search does not get easier with this driver change.

And while Stenhouse has proven a capable driver, that senior leadership role is not going to be filled by a rookie driver. It’s questionable whether he’ll ever be able to play that role at Roush period. It’s hard to forget the tensions between Stenhouse and Edwards that nearly boiled over on the Nationwide circuit a year ago, including the summer Iowa race where Edwards all but destroyed Stenhouse’s car on a final lap charge to the checkers. Stenhouse is far from a loose cannon, but in a battle of stoicism and dealing with a fiery teammate in Edwards, I’m taking Kenseth seven days of the week.

This is all assuming that Stenhouse makes the Cup deal work. Look at the recent list of development drivers in the Roush fold; Todd Kluever, Erik Darnell, Danny O’Quinn, Colin Braun, David Ragan… how many of them panned out? Driver development is not something that has been a strong suit for this organization for years now, yet the keys to the third Cup car are now in the hands of another homegrown product.

All of this because, as the owner openly admitted, “I had no idea that we were at that point” with his most accomplished driver. Regardless of the reason, be it Kenseth’s long-standing habit to be silent on contractual issues, a sexy new deal or the gargantuan effort to keep Carl Edwards happy a year ago leading the Cat in the Hat to neglect the one driver on the roster that actually has hoisted the hardware, such a situation can only be described as a complete and utter failure of management. Considering that Roush Fenway Racing is now facing the prospect of Penske Racing and red-hot Brad Keselowski coming to play for the same Ford dollars they’ve long depended on, such a disaster could not come at a worse time. There is true instability at the helm of Ford Racing’s flagship.

Whereas for Kenseth, the stability continues even if the number and car make changes for 2013. Though it was a struggle at first following the departure of Robbie Reiser, Kenseth has successfully navigated crew chief changes, proving to be a contender in 2012 with a fellow champion in Jimmy Fennig calling the shots. He followed up a week of speculation and non-stop questioning with a workman-like top 10 effort at Kentucky, his seventh in eight races and one that kept him in the points lead heading to Daytona, a track where he won the last race.

And as for the ongoing debate as to whether or not a lame-duck can truly compete for a Cup title, past history says yes… because past history bears out little correlation between becoming a lame-duck and performance changing. When Ryan Newman announced in the midst of an ugly slump that he was leaving Penske Racing for Stewart-Haas in the summer of 2008, the team didn’t suddenly solve their aero push problem. When Tony Stewart announced his own departure from Gibbs that year, he didn’t suddenly morph from a slow starter that scored only six top 10s in the first 14 races (teammate Kyle Busch won four races in that same span) to title contender; his only win came courtesy of NASCAR’s “grand theft auto race” job on Regan Smith at Talladega.

It works the other way as well. Kurt Busch’s top 10 finishing average went up after he announced he was leaving Roush Racing for Penske in 2005, while his DNF rate went down. Kyle Busch’s top 10 finishing average went up after being forced out at Hendrick in 2007. Hot teams stay hot, cold teams stay not, regardless of where the driver is going says recent history. In short, Kenseth’s a title contender as of today, there’s no reason to think it won’t stay that way.

Another year, another Chase berth, another run at the title for Matt Kenseth. Mr. Stability is still there, even if he’s racing someplace else.

And even if the House of Roush teeters in the wake of his departure.

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Ken
07/02/2012 09:32 AM
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The departure of Matt Kenseth from Roush will significantly hurt the organization for sure. Edwards is turning into a lame duck, and I’m not so sure he’ll ever see victory lane again. I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t. He is just not taking this game seriously any more. Too, maybe Fastenal, Aflac, and Subway need to sit Mr.s Edwards, Osborne, and Roush down and lay the law down. If you miss the chase, kiss our sponsorships good-bye! As for Biffle, he’s over the hill! He’s seen his better days and has become just a seat filler. As for Stenhouse and Trevor Bayne, if they were smart, they would bolt too, before it’s too late! Even Ford knows the score with Roush. His organization cannot build competitive cars anymore. That’s most likely why they enticed Penske to switch. That is going to be the only way to get Ford back into victory lane.

No, Matt made the right decision to get out. He knows that Roush is no longer a competitive organization. If he has any hope to win the Championship again, or win races again, he will have to go somewhere else. And even though I have been a loyal ford fan ever since I started to follow NASCAR 51-years ago, and even though I’ve been a Roush fan since Jack moved to NASCAR, it’s time to move on. Where ever Matt goes, I’ll follow! You can only take enough of seeing your favorite teams fade from being competitive and winning, to being a 20th place team at best for so long! Thanks for the memories Jack and Ford, but the time has come for this fan to move on. Hurry up, Matt, and tell us where you are going!

Pete
07/02/2012 11:00 AM
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This is BIG. And another huge loss for Ford which has a long history of not keeping, or getting, top drivers.

But in no way do I blame Matt for this move.

Funky D
07/02/2012 11:25 AM
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Roush’s inability to land sponsorship has cast a whole cloud over his entire organization. When Richard Petty Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing have figured out how to get their cars fully backed, it is time for some soul-searching at Roush.

Tony’s has had to patch together sponsorship for Ryan’s car (and even his own at times), but has been flexible enough to do it. Sounds like Roush might be too set in his ways.

Rufus
07/02/2012 11:40 AM
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I have to agree with what has already been said. Kenseth leaving Roush will kill that organization. And after listening to Jack Roush’s interview, I have to wonder two things. One, is Roush going senile, and two, who the heck is running that company? Yes, no wonder why Ford wanted The Captain back! My only beef as a true-blue Ford fan (when I am cut, my blood comes out Ford engine blue!), is that we also get the cockiest, most arrogant, and mouthiest punks driving a Ford. Ya, I’m talking about Bad Brad, although he seems to be able back up his mouth.

Gee Jack, either take back the control of your teams, or sell them and retire! Hendrick with his 6 teams, Gibbs, Penske, Childress, and even (Gag! Gag!) Micheal Waltrip are all making you look like a fool!

Danicas Body Man
07/02/2012 12:14 PM
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Roush had Mark Martin in his prime for all of those years and managed to never win a championship. Remember when Mark was to be a lifelong fixture at Roush? Aparently Jack has a way of losing first class drivers. But hey, now he has Ricky Stenhouse!

Carl D.
07/02/2012 01:17 PM
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I echo the other posters in saying that Jack Roush has only himself to blame for losing Kenseth. I get the feeling this was about more than just money, and I wonder if Matt felt under-appreciated at RFR. I’m sure things gone on behind the scenes that most people don’t know about and frankly is no one else’s business. We will probably never know the whole story about Matt’s departure, but it won’t take too long to see how badly this impacts RFR in the short term. From the perspective of manufacturer support, it certainly appears that Penske is positioning itself to become the premier Ford team, and RFR seems to be doing all it can to help Penske make that a reality.

Hey Rufus…

Brad has been playing nice since he’s been at Penske. He’s still “Bad”… as in “Bad to the Bone”. And yeah, he backs that up.

Andy
07/02/2012 02:57 PM
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Great article. Lots of solid comentary and little idle speculation and TMZ-style gossip.

I’ve heard rumors that the lack of sponsors is the fault of the way the Roush organization does business and it isn’t likely to improve.
I’ve always been disappointed with Jack in never getting Mark Martin the championship he deserved and I believe that he was neglecting Kenseth as well. At least he can sell Kenseth’s place in the top 35 to Andretti.

underbird
07/02/2012 05:13 PM
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Wow, you guys talk about how loyal you are as Ford Fans, but you comepletely castigate the one owner who has been a loyal force for us for 25 years…?

Can’t be competitive? Can’t build competitive equipment? That’s just plain ignorance. The Ford package is as competitive as it’s ever been and that’s all thanks to Jack Roush nd Doug Yates. You guys need to get a grip.

I’ll still pull for Jack, and Carl, and Greg, and Ricky. I’ll even pull for Penske once they drop Ddoge for the preferred Blue Oval, but please… don’t try and tell someone who’s been a Ford fan since I heard my first Daytona on an a.m. radio that Ford is losing their edge to these Yahoo’s from Chevy and Toyota. They’ve been a downtrodden underdog for 50 years in Nascar and they’ve always come out swinging. Go ahead and root for these prima-donna drivers all you want, but my loyalty stays with the Blue Oval.

Dan
07/02/2012 11:12 PM
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I’m glad I’m not the only one that hasn’t forgotten the screwjob NASCAR put on Regan Smith @ ‘Dega

SHOEMAN
07/03/2012 08:36 AM
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@ DAN- Regan had it coming and you know it. Winners never cheat and cheaters never win!