NASCAR's Version of Reality

[skool]

Here's the article
http://www.frontstretch.com/jmeyer/10767/

And here are the 37 year results that I came up with; (all info was gathered from http://www.racing-reference.info/  )

Year   Cautions   Races
1970   171      48
1971   159      48
1972   133      31
1973   133      28
1974   179      30
1975   146      30
1976   125      30
1977   143      30
1978   137      30
1979   173      30
   1499      336
4.46 per race

Year    Cautions   Races
1980   214      31
1981   221      31
1982   188      30
1983   172      30
1984   189      30
1985   195      28
1986   224      29
1987   213      29
1988   236      29
1989   228      29
   2080      296
7.02 per race

Year    Cautions   Races
1990   225      29
1991   225      29
1992   163      29
1993   217      30
1994   217      31
1995   191      31
1996   185      31
1997   196      32
1998   209      33
1999   191      34
   2019      307
6.57 per race

Year   Cautions   Races
2000   244      34
2001   256      36
2002   269      36
2003   315      36
2004   313      36
2005   373      36
2006   346      36
2007   160      19
   2276      269
8.46 per race


The secret formula that I used to figure out the rest of the decade (I figured Duke was trying to sell it anyway...) is explained below.

Dividing the # cautions (2276) by the # of races so far (269), you come up with an average of 8.46 per race.

Multiplying 8.46 by 17 (# of races left in 07) you get an additional 143.82 cautions yet to be thrown this year, for a total of 303 in 2007.

Now, using the above figure for 07 totals, the total average for '00 - '07 (2419/286) you get 8.45 per race.

Now, assuming that '08 and '09 will be full schedules (36 races), add another 72 to 286 (358) for total races this decade.

Using the base of 8.45 avg. (which is the best that can be established) times 72, you get an additional 608.4 left to be thrown in 08 & 09 combined.

Add 608 to 2419 and you get 3027 total cautions for the period '00 thru '09.

It must be noted at this point that the above total is actually HIGHER than what I cited in my article. There are two reasons for this. First, I discovered a slight flaw in my formula from when I first did my calculations, but since the corrected formula actually makes my original figures a bit LOW to projected reality, there is no real harm done. Had my calculations been high, I would publish a retraction with correct data. My article data actually makes NASCAR look better. The second reason is I revamped the formula is to make the one Duke (Jay Bush's dog) has, worthless!

Anyways....divide 3027 by 358 and you come up with 8.45 average cautions per race for this decade.

Look at the 37 yr chart above. The increase of cautions in this decade is astronomically high compared to the 70s-80s and 90s. It is a KNOWN fact that cautions breed cautions. Whether the cautions be for legitimate reasons or for a hot dog wrapper (ie 'mystery debris'), the more times you bunch the cars together, of course the numbers of cars on the lead lap will go up   Of course the number of lead changes will increase. Of course the margin of victory will be closer    DUH!

NASCAR is doing something down your back, but they tell you it is raining!

Those are my thoughts. Love to hear yours

[czechmate25]

Wow.  Thats alot of info there.  Good job.

[PuglieseVT]

They increase quite a bit by the time the network TV deal came into play.

And this is with improved tire technology, inner-liners, more reliable engines, less mechanical issues, etc....

[Chris]

yeah.. good point.  I been going to CUP races for 30+ years... not NEAR the blown motors there were years ago...
That alone cuts down on yellows greatly.
SO does tire technology, and the inner liners.
If the yellow is being throw "the same"... seems there should be LESS yellows as the years go on...

I loved that Rusty pointed out today when he thought maybe there was a yellow for NO reason... Nice job Rusty.
Later found out Petty blew up,.. but or a while there it looked like they just threw a yellow for no reason, and he questioned it.
In the BGN race yesterday they DEINATELY threw a yellow late in the race to close up the field and make the end more 'interesting'...  Someone pointed it out that it seemed "THAT" was the only reason for that yellow also.
Nice to see ESPN back again.

[paulfan]

That explains why they had to give Tony a lobotomy.

[Chris]

That explains why they had to give Tony a lobotomy.

Hey nice job there this week in my game there dude.....

[paulfan]

Splain to me how I totally suck on your game but am doing OK on the GOT.  Hoping I can get a FS t-shirt or cap out of Cami at the end of the season.

[Chris]

not sure...
could have something to do with I am doing "decent" in my game... but suck at the GoT

[skool]

This topic came up in the comments section of Tom Bowles' Did You Notice column this this week.

I went back and did some more figgurin' and this is the result.

At the time I wrote my article, I predicted a total of 303 cautions for the yr '07. The actual total was 344.
In '08, there were 321 cautions. In '09, to date, with three races to go, there has been 289.

This brings the 'decade to date' total to 3070! As I said we have 3 races yet to go. My original prediction at the time, through the end of 09 was 3027.

For this decade, the average cautions per race now stands at 8.64. Up 2+ full cautions per race from the 90's.

So, as you can see, even though my 'formula' may not be totally scientific, It does NOT inflate any figures, and in fact, gives nascar the benefit of the doubt.

JM

[S.D. Grady]

That's interesting!  I'd love to know the "reasons" for the 8.64 cautions.  I'm betting the 90's ones were a result of tire and engine failure more than anything.  This decade?  Anybody taking bids on "debris" cautions?  hmmm???

[Tyyrus]

Well just read Mr Smiths Happy Hour Column and if half the effort that Dega has put in for Seating redo's was utilized for track reconfiguration , then Restrictor Plates would not be required and "THE BIG ON" would be a thing of the Past ! Much less cautions and better racing with less carnage and potential Driver or Spectator Injuries ! But No to many people like to come to the Races to watch accidents Brain France and the Networks realize this .... Brutus in the Lions Den Sells Tickets Right ?

[skool]

That's interesting!  I'd love to know the "reasons" for the 8.64 cautions.  I'm betting the 90's ones were a result of tire and engine failure more than anything.  This decade?  Anybody taking bids on "debris" cautions?  hmmm???

Hey S.D, I thought you might find this interesting. The following is a sneak peak of part of my upcoming Voices column, to be published 11/19/09...

During my re-visitation of these astounding figures, a colleague wondered just how many yellow flags had been thrown in the name of “debris” now days compared to days of yore. Not being to keen on wasting an entire day sorting threw all the races of the past 40 years, I did decide to do a quick sampling of “debris” cautions in 2009 (so far) compared to 1999. The results surprised even me to say the least.

In ’99, there was a total of 191 cautions thrown. 11 of those were for “debris”. At least one “debris” caution was thrown in 9 out of 34 races. Of those 9 races, only 2 races had more than one and they each had 2.

In 2009, with one race yet to be run, there has been a total of 298 cautions thrown with 68 of those listed as “debris”. At least one “debris” caution has been thrown in 31 of 35 races (so far)! Of those 31 races, an astounding 18 races had 2 or more “debris” cautions, with the May Dover race having a high of 6 “debris” cautions out of a total of 10! Five other races this year have had 4 “debris” cautions and another five races have had 3!


Just wanted to throw that in there!   

[S.D. Grady]

Well...you know what they say about figures not lying.  I would *love* to have these stats presented to NASCAR and ask for an explanation for the astronomical increase in cautions.  The drivers know its crap...the fans know its crap.  I suspect their answer would be...

[HUDSON HORNET]

........  The drivers know its crap...the fans know its crap.  I suspect their answer would be...

Uhhhhhhh,    .......... interesting?       

[Tyyrus]

Cra......yes rather interesting !