Let's Discuss # of 2009 race teams....

[Chris]

I been looking over the 2009 teams listed over at Jayski
I got to noticing some very interesting fact so far...
Here's what we know so far as facts...

Usually at THIS point in the season MOST of the teams have nailed down sponsors for the upcoming year.  With the economy in such flux and turmoil,... many teams have NO sponsors, or only limited sponsors for next season. Up to THIS point:
there are only 29 teams listed with what would be considered sponsors for all of next season.
we have 4 teams with 'partial' sponsorship... Sorenson, 6 races;.. Reutimann, 18 races;.. Newman, 22 races;.. and Montoya, 19 races Wrigleys (now owned by Mars candy)
there are 9 teams with NO signed guaranteed sponsors as of yet. - 7, 8, 22, 28, 38, 41, 43, 44, 96   
then finally we have a few teams (maybe 6) that MAY want to run part time.

That's only 47 MAXIMUM teams if they ALL showed up at EVERY race next season.  That's a pretty bleak outlook to be looking at to start the season with...
Now granted I'm sure we'll see our normal surge at the start of the season at Daytona... lots of guys throw a 'hail mary' and see if they can make THAT race,.. then if they do... see if they can parlay that into a good finish and maybe run the next couple races and hang onto the top 35 after the top 5 races.
BY and large that usually don't work out and someone has to fall by the wayside.

I'm gonna drop back and look at some particular teams.  Nothing going on now in this down time anyway... Maybe we can talk about something and generate some good discussion and speculation.

First we'll look at the 9 non-sponsored 'full time' teams that 'should' run in 2009.  R Gordon I'd expect to re-sign Jim Beam and maybe Menards and be able to compete with no problems.  Almirola,.. I'm not so sure they'll be able to find a sponsor for that car.. That's a big maybe.  Since DEI and Ganassi merged they may have to end up putting Almirola in the #41 seat just because they have a car with no driver and a driver with no sponser.  In any event, it that happens we lose one team.
Next we look at the #22.  As of now Blaney is out of a ride and Bill Davis Racing is looking at shutting down.  Another team could fall by the wayside.  The #28 and the #38.  They functioned fairly well ALL of 2008 without a sponsor on either car,.. but I can't see that Yates racing can bear to foot that bill for another year.  If no sponsor is found for at least ONE of those cars,.. I'd guess they'll have to drop one of those teams.   SO we could lose another team.
The #41 we already covered.  Got a sponsor,.. no driver.  Maybe Dinger will end up here before it's all said and done.  Still they'd have to find a sponser for Almirola. 
The 43 has no sponsor as of yet.  Being now owned by an Investment group is TOTALLY different than being owned by Petty Enterprises.  When it was Petty Enterprises they'd put a car on the track out of family history and pride.  Now that it's run by an investment firm,.. it's all about the bottom line, and it's all about the money.  If it's not a money making venture,.. they'll pull out and lock the doors.  SO IMO that team can be here today and gone tomorrow.
#45 also falls under the Petty Enterprises banner.. so same scenerio as the #43.  They have no guaranteed sponsor yet... so who knows.  McCumbee is scheduled to drive.. But I wouldn't bet that car will see the track without a sponsor.
Finally we get to the #98.  HoF racing looks to still be in business, and it seems maybe they still have TI lined up as a sponsor.  They DON'T have a driver as of yet.  But there are drivers available.

SO if you count up ALL the FULL TIME TEAMS you come up with 42... still not enough to fill a full field.  And That is if you figure All the teams DO keep RUNNING.. like Bill Davis, etc etc...
The only thing that helps keep these above cars around for at least the first FIVE races of 2009 is that they are in the top 35 in points,.. and will get an automatic start in those races.  Since they get to start,.. I am sure they will all hope that they will be able to use those 5 starts to STAY in the top 35 in points and keep racing.
On the DOWN side.... by being IN the top 35...racing without a sponsor DOES NOT pay the bills.  SO the fact they would get to start, would only be an inducement to try and get a sponsor to come on board

Finally I want to touch on the part timers.  Very short list of part timers.  These are usually the "field fillers", and usually there are a large number of them acrosss the country.  Not so this year.  However with teams/ drivers seeing what I am... they may come out of the woodwork for their shot at the CUP series.
I count only 6 part-time teams this season.  they are - 08, 09, 13, 45, 60, and 78.  Now out of this list I can see some not really actually racing.
Lets start at the beginning.The 08 team has shown up at several events this season, they have always been way off the pace, and unless I missed something I don't think they made a field all of 2008.  The 09 is probably the 2nd best team on this list.  The Finch owned team made several fields, and if they decided to run every race could probably be fairly competative.  With the CUP fields looking to be so short in 2009 I think they could probably make most all they attempted to qualify for.  If they worked out a deal with Mike Bliss to drive both their NNS and CUP car they could probably do respectable in both series.  The #13 is the car Max Papis drove in 2008, and Max is full of enthusiasum, but needs more seat time.  Unfortunately the ban on testing will hurt this team badly, and I don't see much improvement for this team in '09.  The #45 is Kyle Petty's number, and I don't forsee this car even being used in 2009...    #60 is Boris Said.  Of all the drivers listed IMO he would be a pick to do well.  Boris is a great road racer, and has shown well on the restricter plate tracks.  I do still have some questions about his abilities on the small and intermediate size tracks.  NOW.. I will say this.  Boris has been wanting to take a shot at running FULL time n the CUP series for several years,.. with the look of a short field in 2009,.. IMO he should  jump in and give it a shot in 2009.
The #78 is the last team... they have basically shut down and released their driver Joe Nemechek...  They are listed as 'race to race' next season.
So all in all I really don't count but maybe THREE part time teams from this list.  The rest don't have the money or desire to run full time... (and three may be over-counting)
SO if you take ALL the possible 42 teams we had originally,.. and add in three from here.. that looks to be a max of 45 teams showing up...
Thats a pretty short field to start with.  I know jutt a couple years ago we went to Daytona with about 70 cars.  I think we'll be lucky to see 50 this year.
If we have 45 at the 2nd and 3rd races... we'll be lucky,  especially since they are way out in California and Las Vegas.  Low budget teans just can't afford to go that far,... and if they tear up a car at California,.. they won't be able to race at Vegas...
IMO the next season is gonna be veeerryy interesting

What'll you all think.  Am I crazy.  Way off base or just a pessimist...

[scott b]

Well, we closed out the 08 season with only 43 full time teams.

The 33 is the only truly new team added.  Smoke's 2 teams replace the old 66 & 70, the 98 replaces the 15, and the 47 steps up to full time but takes over the 00 points.  So, that would have been 44 f/t teams.

Then, the 78 cut back, leaving us back at 43.

Next, the 22 stops just short of padlocking the shop.  That's 42 left.

The post merger Ganassi-Earnhart organization still needs to trim one car after losing the 15, so that gets us to 41 teams that will be declaring themselves full time to start the season.

Now, casualties once the season begins...

I would say the 96 is in danger of cutting back to part time.  They don't even know what manufacturer they will be running next season, and are loosing their Gibbs-Lite status.

Yates could cut either the 28 or 38 and only run two full time teams instead of 3 (with Menard being one of the two).

The Wood Brothers could be in trouble, they don't have full sponsorship and I don't see the family funding a Cup team out of their own pockets for long.  Scaling back to part time to economize would make sense.

That would be 38 full timers that make it into the later part of the season.  I think that's pretty realistic.  If the teams I mentioned above do make it, you can pick others from the list, but unless the economy turns around much sooner that I expect, there will be more dropouts.

NASCAR might be able to round up 43 entries if they really get out and beat the bushes for part timers, but it will be pretty obvious they are field fillers.  Out West they will have to count on guys like Brandon Ash to show.

[Chris]

I think you are right Scott...
After we get threw the first 5 races... we could be looking at "less than full" fields...
IMP we could be in for what's been happening in the NNS and Truck series for the last couple years... Guys show up, qualify and Start and Park.
Will NASCAR complain???... Not On Your Life...
If anything NASCAR will be on the phone trying to talk teams (ANYONE) to show up to the track so the field is full
Unless something has changed since we races in the CTS if there wasn't a full field NASCAR didn't get but 1/2 of their TV money if the field wasn't full.  Several times NASCAR called our team and asked us to go to a far-off or stand alone event where the truck count was going to be low,... even offered to help pay some of our expenses.
Imagine how much NASCAR gets each week for TV money.  It's in the MILLIONS of dollars.  Think if they start LOSING that week after week.
BB and all you folks that go to the races (and go in the pits)... you'll know who are the teams that's gonna start-n-park in advance.  They'll be the teams that only buy one set of tires.  (Maybe NASCAR has made a rule by now you are 'required' to buy X number sets of tires from Goodyear in you are in the race... who knows)

Something is gonna happen.  They'll have guys showing up somehow.  Morgan Shepherd, and other low budget teams will put something together and show up, qualify and run several laps and park the car.  They'll be the ONLY teams "making" money in racing.  Hey.. I say if after all these years of struggling to get by, they can figure a way to work the system in THEIR favor.... more power to them...

OH I meant to mention that the #44 that McCumbee looks to drive is NOT a "go" yet for 2009.  No sponsorship has been secured.  I saw he stated just a couple days ago:

We have to wait for sponsorship," he said. "If we don't have it, we can't go racing. We've had some things lined up, but when companies start to struggle, NASCAR sponsorship will be the first to go." McCumbee said he doesn't "have an answer" to what next year will look like, but is "confident we will be able to run some," in the Sprint Cup Series. He also said he may return to the Craftsman Truck Series

[20forLogano]

with no testing we will see Nascar paying teams to show up in vegas and cali so they can field 43 cars on the track.

[smyler]

Reading all of this does kind of make me sad.  Between the rules that NA$CAR has made and the bad economy I think this is going to be one tough season.

[SMOKEN14]

Reading all of this does kind of make me sad.  Between the rules that NA$CAR has made and the bad economy I think this is going to be one tough season.

Hopefully there will be a bright side to all this ..... CHEAPER TICKETS     

[FSBryan]

On the Nationwide Series front, when I spoke to Mike Bliss at Charlotte in October, he was convinced that there wouldn't even be 36 teams at some of the races last season.

As for the Cup Series, I don't think we'll see short fields, as the purses are too good for the field-fillers to not jump at the chance to start and park for $65k a weekend. Some of the perpetual field-fillers already have COTs (Derrike Cope and Norm Benning immediately come to mind).

[scott b]

Yeah, I would expect some ARCA guys to be enticed to dabble in Cup next season.  Norm Benning is one.  Maybe Frank Kimmel, too.  He lost his Pork (the other white meat) sponsorship, so a few last place Cup checks could help pay some bills.

[KurtBuschFan]

Hopefully there will be a bright side to all this ..... CHEAPER TICKETS    

TMS has already started with cheaper tickets...and they're demolishing part of the backstretch grandstands.

[20forLogano]

Hard Rock in Kansas put on hold.  I think the concessions is where the money should be slashed more than the tix.  There are some tracks where outside food/beers are not allowed in.