Who'll make chase

[Chris]

Well.. it seems the last couple years I have heard on TV and read from various sorces that
"on an average 9 of the 12 drivers in the top twelve positions in points after Bristol,.. go on to make the chase."
After doing some research.. I see only ONE year since the chase started we had 10 of 12 .. but all other years it was 7 (three times) or 8 (twice)
SO that averages 7.5 at best.

All that aside.. of the drivers currently in the top 12 in points.. who will make the chase.  Which guys are pretenders and will fall out, and which ones will be contenderd for the CUP title
Here is the top 12 in points as of now.... down to 22nd

1  KEVIN HARVICK                       774
  2  MATT KENSETH                    773
  3  JIMMIE JOHNSON                  760
  4  GREG BIFFLE                         750
  5  TONY STEWART                   685
  6  KURT BUSCH                        677
  7  JEFF BURTON                        677
  8  DALE EARNHARDT, JR            621
  9  PAUL MENARD                      614
 10  KYLE BUSCH                        606
 11  JEFF GORDON                      603
 12  CLINT BOWYER                    601

 13  CARL EDWARDS                    585
 14  BRIAN VICKERS                     584
 15  JAMIE MCMURRAY                  581
 16  MARK MARTIN                       579
 17  JOEY LOGANO                      558
 18  SCOTT SPEED                       552
 19  DENNY HAMLIN                      515
 20  MARTIN TRUEX, JR                 513
 21  A J ALLMENDINGER                510
 22  JUAN PABLO MONTOYA          508

[skool]

Replace Menard, Dale Jr and Bowyer with Edwards, Martin and Montoya and you have your chasers.

[scott b]

Edwards and Mark Martin are the two now outside that I have a hard time believing won't gain enough positions.

Menard is the easiest one to cross off the list of those who are currently top-12.  After that... I'm afraid I'm going to have to take Jr as my second pick to fall out, though maybe Brian France will change the rules again if that happens. 

So it looks like I'm in agreement with Skool, except I don't really consider JPM a lock for the chase again (I do give him a decent chance, though).  I'd also pick either Burton or Bowyer as my other "dropout" if I had to pick three, on the theory that RCR going 3 for 3 may not happen, but Harvick seems pretty solid.

Kasey Kahne is also sitting well off the chase list at 508 points, it'll be interesting to see where he ends up with this being a contract year for him.  Dinger may give him a run for top dog within the Petty organization, if so, it won't help his bargaining power.

[south jersey girl]

out...Menard and Bowyer
in...Edwards and Martin

[SMOKEN14]

Missing the chase will be JR Bowyer and Menard with
Martin Edwards and Truex JR Making the chase

[just a fan]

Jr and Menard don't make the chase. Vickers and Edwards do.

[20forLogano]

Menard out Martin in
Junior out Montoya in
Bowyer out Edwards in

[Chris]

Think I have to go along with most of you...
Jr making the chase is almost as big as joke as the "sport" of NASCAR racing has become.  Like someone said,.. If Jr misses the chase again,.. no surprise if we see another rules change.  About the ONLY rule change that would get Jr in the chase each year would be one that reads... "NO Matter what happens;  Dale Jr is in the chase each year"... lol

I think Martin will get in... Menard will fall out... But I do think Menard has shown some great signs of improvement so far this season.  I kind of expect it to continue.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him finihs inside the top 20 in points.

To be honest I'll be hard to pick the third guy to get in. 
Seems there's always a "surprise"... I kind of think it will be Logano.. that kid is just a sponge, and soaks up so much info each time he goes to a track.. he just improves in leaps and bounds.  I kind of think Bowyer will struggle and fall out...

Also wouldn't surprise me to see a 4th guy fall out.. if a 4th guys falls out I have a feeling it'll be Biffle... he seems to hit a hard patch sometime during the first 26 races.  Can't figure out if he is far enough up front to hang in the top 12.
If Biffle falls out... I look for Montoya to get in.  Montoya has had a ton of bad luck this year already,.. and is still only 80 points out of 12th...

[south jersey girl]

Biffle's been running very consistantly this year, and is the only driver to have a top 10 finish in each race this year so far...

[DougS]

Menard out Jamie Mac in

Kyle Busch out Edwards in

Bowyer and Jr fighting for the 12th spot.

HMS will allow the 5 car to slip if it persreves the 88 in the chase. It's better for everyone (expect jr haters) if JR is in the chase.