Predictions - Predictions

[Chris]

well folks we find ourselves on the cusp of yet another Nascar season...
As is an annual tradition here,... I think we just MUST throw our our annual predictions and see how it all shakes out at the end of the season.

I'm not sure what all you want to predict right now... not been up long,.. and minds not clear yet.
I guess obviously you'd want to give the top 12 to make the "chase"... and also the top 10 finishing order for the end of the season.  Also the Nascar champ.
I have a feeling we'd mostly agree that JP Montoya could be hard to beat for Rookie of the Year,.... but folks may have varying views on that.
What about the new Toyota,.. how will it do..??
What drivers will make a comeback... which ones will have a slump.
Also what do you think (predict) about the CoT.  How will it work out,.. a Success; or will it go over like a turd in a punch bowl.... Will it make for better or worse racing...
I'm sure there are things I have missed... maybe even predict who will win the BGN and CTS championship.
I hadn't given it much thought yet... just wanted to throw it out there so we could start mulling it over.
Should make for interesting reading over the next 4 weeks....

[falcon325]

Sounds like fun, Chris. 

Other than JPM, who else is making a run at ROTY?  I may see if I can ferret out a list of the possible rookies.

[KurtBuschFan]

From jayski...the list he has of ROTY drivers for 2007

A.J. Allmendinger, #84
Paul Menard, #15
Juan Pablo Montoya, #42
David Reutimann, #00
Regan Smith, #01 [14 races]
David Ragan, #6
Brandon Whitt, #72
Jon Wood, #21 [10 races]

[Dustcloud]

Oy. I'll have to think on the top ten. you know I'm no good with that end-of-season stuff.

Only person I expect to give any trouble to Montoya is Menard. Not much trouble, I imagine, but looking at the cars the rest are in, it's just hard to take them seriously, neh?

I kind of like Toyota for this coming year. Maybe not to win, not yet, but I expect to see a strong showing from them. Heck, looking at some of the drivers, I might have to be a Toyota fan It would gel with my track record.

I'm looking for a lot of the driver swapping to not have the desired effect. I don't imagine, for example, Mears burning it up in his new digs. Ride swapping has come with a lot of expectation lately, and I'm not sure it's all warrented. the places it works best, it seems, is with drivers who've already proven their quality and who for one reason or another just stopped gelling with their former team. See Sadler. It'll be interesting though.

COT will be an excuse. An excuse for wins. An excuse for losses. A reason for complaints on all sides, I'll wager.

One thing I'd like to see predicted... there are as many as twenty predicted full-time teams over and above the 35 guaranteed starting positions. what teams do you all think'll get into the top-35 after a few races and which teams will fall out? Current bottom five being Robby Gordon, David Stremme, Ken Schrader/Jon Wood, Elliot Sadler and Kyle Petty. I'd be very surprised to see Sadler stay that far back, and I think Gordon's scrappy enough to stay up there. The guaranteed starters might just have a natural advantage though - with this big a field, it's possible most of those chasing 35th might get to race six having missed a race. O.o

[AfterShock]

Golly Chris, I haven't given much thought on it yet. But one thing I WILL predict is that Bobby Hamilton Jr. will be on fire for the championship. And I'd like to see him succeed.

Other than that, I predict more than a few drivers won't take Skool's advice of "Stay Off The Wall" and try to climb a few.

And, when all the dust settles, I predict I'LL be the fantasy champion.
Bring it on folks!
If y'all think y'all can beat ME, sign up NOW.
Chris will give you the details.
But, be advised. I plan to take no prisoners.

[Chris]

I hear ya Shocky
Glad to have ya tossing your hat in the ring with the rest of us...
If we keep the 4 we had here from the FS last season (and I expect we will)... I think we could add maybe another 4 or 5 from FS... plus my other 10 friends... we'd be pushing 20 for this season.
Love to see us have that many for 2007.

Lots of work for me,.. but lots of fun for everyone else.
If anyone else (old timer,... newbie, etc) may want to play... need some more info,... just drop me a line.

As far as predictions... I'm gonna toss mine in here before long.

[KurtBuschFan]

I'm gonna sticky this so it doesn't get lost during the season....then we can go back in November and see how we did

[flamehothead]

I think the 2007 season may be the toughest to make predictions on because there were alot of KEY people who are moving around. This is my prediction for the Top Ten, And yes It could change. There are still a few questions I have.

1.Stewart- As long as he picks up where he left off.
2. J.Gordon- He is due for a comeback and it doesn't look good for his car to win and he doesn't.
3.Jr- This was the tough one. Depends on his contract deal. If he gets it then Ok. If not then mabey not even the top 10.
4.Johnson- I'm going by the past. Most drivers don't do well the year after their Championship.
5.Kayne- There coming, Just give it time.
6.Harvick- Need's to quit worrying about the Busch series so damn much.
7.J.Burton- I'm not sure he will ever get a Championship even though I would like to see him do it.
8. D.Hamlin- Sophmore Blues might get him like they do so many other drivers.
9.Edwards- If a Ford can break into the top 10, Then it would be Carl Edwards.
10. Newman- Gotta have one long shot, Right. He does have a new Crew Chief and it that may be all it takes.

As for ROTY, I'm gonna have to go with Menard for the simple fact that he has alot more experiance in Nascar style cars. Montoya may surprise us all but it's hard to say.

Toyota: I think with all Completely New Cars it's gonna take time and maybe more than expected. Ya have to figure that when most new cars come into Nascar the usually have an engine program already up and running for other cars. Most of the time it's only a body change for a team but in this case they have to build an engine with a little more power and one that will last longer than 300 miles or less. Granted they are in the truck series but this is a little different to say the least.

Comeback: Well of course I'm gonna say Stewart but the reason is the way he ended the season. If he can take off like he finished then it should be a good year.
Comeback: IMO I think Newman at least deserves to have a good year. He had to take a back seat to Rusty for so long and I think it took a toll on him and his entire team. And like I said, He has a new Crew Chief. Sometimes that's a good thing and sometimes it's really bad so we shall see.

COT: Honestly, I'm gonna have to see it run first. From what I have seen so far I;m not that impressed at all.

Busch: I will predict that a Busch regular will win the Championship in 07. I'm sure Harvick doesn't want to hear that but I think he will.

CTS: It looks like the #6 truck has been on top in Daytona.

Well if  all of these predictions come out like I have said then I will become a Psycic. Good luck to ALL drivers in all Series.

[smyler]

My prediction is that Toyota is going to finish as the number 2 car manufacturer.  I saw the ESPN special on Michael Waltrip Racing and Toyota is doing some amazing things with their engines.  Chevy is still the leader, but Toyota will be as good as Fords.  Dodge?  Still # 4.

My predictions for some of the big races are:
 Daytona:     Jeff Gordon
 Indy:          Kurt Busch  (man I hate to say that)
 
ROTY:         JPM

Champ is going to be a repeat for JJ.

[Checkeredflag]

Busch: I will predict that a Busch regular will win the Championship in 07. I'm sure Harvick doesn't want to hear that but I think he will.

I think Harvick would love to hear that - only Carl Edwards, JJ Yeley and Dave Blaney are announced as running the full Busch season.  That would keep Kevin as the only driver to win a championship under those circumstances - although, honestly, I don't see any of the Busch regulars beating Cousin Carl for the championship, if the weather cooperates.

[flamehothead]

I think Harvick would love to hear that - only Carl Edwards, JJ Yeley and Dave Blaney are announced as running the full Busch season.  That would keep Kevin as the only driver to win a championship under those circumstances - although, honestly, I don't see any of the Busch regulars beating Cousin Carl for the championship, if the weather cooperates.

Your probably right. The Busch series has few people I have never heard of. I seen on Jayski that there are a couple of Old-School drivers who are looking for rides but nothing yet. It does look like there are ALOT of Rookies though so it should be interesting.

[Skig]

Toyota:  I can see a Toyota in Victory Lane within the first ten races of the season.  I have no strong feelings one way or another, but I think they've invested alot, and NASCAR will give them the push that the need, ie for the sake of 'parity', that'll net them a win quickly.

ROTY:  When Rusty retired, and especially when Kurt Busch took over his ride, I lost interest in NASCAR.  I didn't watch much last year, and all the news I got came from Racing Forums.  When JPM announced he was coming to NASACR, I decided it may be worth watching again, much to my wife's dismay.  Not only will he win ROTY, but I think he'll win a couple of races, perhaps a roadie.

Comeback:  Stewart has to be the odds on favorite.  He's too good to keep down.

The Chase:  I could easily see Stewart winning again.  If he can get out of the gate without any major setbacks, he always finishes the season strong.  With 12 in the Chase now, he'll definately be in contention.  (With 12 in the Chase now, does that mean the 13th place finisher is racing for the Million Dollar bonus?)

Wierdest Experience:  Hearing the annoucer say... "And Mark Martin takes his Chevy to the lead here at Daytona..."

COT:  Joke. 

The Jr. Factor:  Sorry #8 Fans, I don't see Jr. making many waves this year, on the race track.  Too much on his plate with the inner turmoil that is DEI.  Can't imagine working for my step mom, and having her diss me like that in the public eye.

[Chris]

Well gee...
I'm not sure I got ALL my ducks in a row to make all my predictions yet,... but I been mulling over some things....
FIRST I don't think it's sticking out my neck to far to say that Toyota WILL win a race this year... My only problem will be WHO.  I don't see Waltrip winning a race,... Not Allmendinger either,... Reutimann- Nope... Bodine - Nope...
Now we are quickly running out of "quality" drivers that can win races.... ONLY have Mayfield, Jarrett, Blaney, and Vickers.... Of those I'd only give a "realistic" chance of winning to Jarrett, and Vickers... so even though I think Toyota SHOULD win,... Maybe the drivers in the cars don't have the talent or experience.

NOW as far as Rookie of the year... I think Montoya will win that.  I think his learning curve will come around fast,... and he will do well.  I think David Ragan in the #6 Roush car will also be very competative before the season is over,.. but not enough to beat Montoya out of RoY
Menard could be competative in many races also.  Thats the ONLY three rookie contenders I see have decent years.

I'm glad to see Nascar go to the top 12 in points making the chase...  I think I'd pick these 12 to make the top 12:
Biffle, J Burton, Kurt Busch, Earnhardt, Edwards, J Gordon, Hamlin, Johnson, Kahne, Kenseth, Sadler, Stewart.  Notice no Toyota drivers..

Top 10 CUP points
1. Stewart
2. Kenseth
3. Johnson
4. Kahne
5. Biffle
6. Earnhardt
7. Edwards
8. Sadler
9. J. Gordon
10. Kurt Busch

RoY - a close race,.. Montoya edges out Ragan
I don't look for a Toyota win the first 1/2 of the season,.. and then it'll probably be in a CoT race.??
BGN Champ - Edwards
CTS Champ - Kvapil
I see Newman continuing to struggle

[Busch Babe 899]

O-kay, the ONLY time I ever picked something like this right at the beginning of the season was when I picked Matt Kenseth for the Championship a few years back...since that time, my crystal ball has been sadly cloudy...oh, well, I'll give it a try.

I'm with you, Skig, it's going to be SOOOOOOOOOO disconcerting with Mark in the 01 (and other numbers in Busch and Truck), or not on the track at all certain races, but the speculation is rampant...Mark will run all the Cup races up until the spring Bristol race (doesn't surprise me he's planning to skip that one) BUT if that race comes along, and he's in the top 10 in points, he MIGHT decide to run all the races, try for the Chase again...that's the speculation, how cool would that be, and how ODD would it be if he did, and he finally won his championship, but not with Jack Roush??? Not likely to happen, but it would be cool! 

But I'm not including him in the top 12 in my predictions...if that speculation proves to be true, one of these guys will fall out, because Mark will give it his usual 110 %, and will make the Chase.

1. Greg Biffle…this team has been knocking on the door of a Championship for some time, this time could finally be it.

2. Jimmy Johnson…contending again, but he won’t repeat.

3. Carl Edwards...not only will he also rebound, but he'll lead the points at some point in the season...just not at the end of the final race, sadly...no matter, Carl's got a Championship in his future, perhaps several...but I don't think it'll be this year, much as I'd love it.

4. Kurt Busch…he’ll finally start performing better in that 2 car.

5. Matt Kenseth...he will contend again, but he and his team seem to have bad luck, or choke once again, in the Chase, falling off in performance as the races count down, as they have in recent seasons...so I don't think he'll do any better than 5th.

6. Jeff Gordon…a decidedly average season for him. Again. Being a Dad will change his perspective…I don’t see Jeff Gordon running too many more seasons, with his famous wife and new family. I think the clock is ticking for him…5 years from now, I bet he’s retired.

7. Jeff Burton…top 10 again.

8. DJ…the lone Toyota team to make the Chase…it’s a start.

9. Kevin Harvick…he does best when he runs Busch and Cup both full-time…but he’ll still make the Chase.

10. Kasey Kahne…Once again, in the Chase, and he’ll win again in ’07, but this team needs to focus more on the tracks that AREN’T 1 ½ mile cookie cutters, up the performance elsewhere, get more consistency. No matter WHAT NASCAR does to the points system, consistency still counts, and this team has lacked that so far.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr...all the focus and attention on his signing a new contract with DEI, all the speculation, gets to the team. Jr and team peform better when the focus is elsewhere, and the focus is going to be smack on them this season

12. Jamie MacMurray...yes, Jack Roush has basically given him an ultimatum...get yourself a crew chief you can work with (kinda makes Jamie sound like a prima donna, doesn't it???), and then if you don’t perform…bye bye. We’ll see what happens, but I think we’ll see an improvement in consistency from this team, and a win.

And what about 2006's ROTY?? Hamlin will suffer the same fate as many other talented rookies have in their second season...he'll miss the Chase, not by much, but just enough that he'll end up, like Carl Edwards last season, not gaining much notice during the Chase races. Never underestimate the power of the "Sophomore Slump"...Kahne, Edwards are the 2 recently who I recall "slumping"...although I know MANY teams out there would LOVE to have a "Slump" year that has them cracking the top 15 in points.

2007 ROTY: yes Montoya and Menard are going to be good, but before the season last year, no-one predicted HOW good Hamlin would be...Montoya is an excellent, talented race car driver, but I don't see him lighting the world on fire this season. Then again, I don't see anyone on that list that, IMO, has the potential to be a break-out ROTY star like Hamilin was in '06 (and Edwards WOULD have been in '05, had he not been asked to step into the 99 car a few races too early the previous season)

So, I'll say Menard, because the attention is going to be focused on Juan Pablo, and Menard will be flying under the radar.

Toyota: I agree, they'll struggle a bit, but we'll see spots of brilliance...Brian Vickers and DJ will both contend for wins, if not actually win. But I think the steep Cup learning curve will make the Toyota teams struggle a bit, and 2007 will be Toyota's "Warm Up" season, to come out in 2008 and start putting the heat on the other manufacturers.

Comeback: Carl Edwards will be in the Chase again this season, having put his "Sophomore Slump" behind him...he will win several races with Bob Osborne up on the pit box...after all, he was second only to Tony Stewart in the amount of points he gained during the Chase (or was it the other way around??)...the 2 of them gained more points each than any of the Chasers. Carl and that team have the same momentum built up at the end of last season as Tony and crew.

Of course, Tony will rebound also. You can't keep him down. Besides, he's more aerodynamic now!

COT: I don't think on the track we fans are going to see much difference...the difference is going to be in how the teams can adjust it, and how the drivers feel in it. I don't think it's going to be as big a transition as everyone thinks...50% of this year's races will be in the COT. To me, that means they should have the bugs ironed out well before the end of the season.

Busch: Carl Edwards, 2007 champ. Had it not been for Harvick stinking up the show, he'd be champ right now...he's not going to let up.

CTS: How weird is it going to be, watching Travis Kvapil in the lead with the 6 truck, which, if we recall, Mark got the number from Kevin Harvick before last season. Oh, I've said for quite some time Kvapil is talented, and would show his stuff in good equipment, with a chance to just race...I guess now we'll see if I'm right.  But I got to see Mark win for the first time in person at Daytona in that Truck race, I became attached to that truck and the plan very quickly…I’m so sad I won’t be able to cheer Mark on to a Truck Championship this season. So I don't really care who wins the Championship...

[Chris]

CTS: How weird is it going to be, watching Travis Kvapil in the lead with the 6 truck, which, if we recall, Mark got the number from Kevin Harvick before last season. Oh, I've said for quite some time Kvapil is talented, and would show his stuff in good equipment, with a chance to just race...I guess now we'll see if I'm right...

BB I agree with you here...
Kvapil already has a couple years under his belt in the CTS series (and a championship)...
David Ragan came out of NO WHERE and run real well in the #6 truck last season.  Put the truck up front many times,... in just a short time in the truck he contended for several wins, and made several top 10 finishes.
If a green rookie can make THAT good a showing in the #6 truck,.. I think Kvapil could possibly take the same truck and team and stink up the CTS show by the end of the season...