The Frontstretch: Sometimes You Can’t Beat the Chalk-Fantasy Insight by Dennis Michelsen -- Thursday April 14, 2005

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Sometimes You Can’t Beat the Chalk-Fantasy Insight

Dennis Michelsen · Thursday April 14, 2005


Sometimes You Can’t Beat the Chalk-Fantasy Insight
Texas Motor Speedway
Many times on Fantasy Insight I have mentioned the similarities between picking winners in Stock Car races and horse racing. Just like at the horses a player gets in a slump trying to always beat the favorite, which is also known as a “Chalk.” So far this season I have suffered despite the Power Ratings still working quite well. Maybe I have dug too deep into the data looking for a winner. Last week at the horses we had three of the bigger Kentucky Derby prep races. The “Chalks,” with decent prices of 5-2 and 9-5, won two of the three events. The one chalk that lost figured to lose according to my calculations. In one race I picked the chalk and in one race I tried to beat the chalk. This week at the Samsung/Radio Shack 500 there is an obvious chalk…Jimmie Johnson at 5-1. He rates so much higher than the rest of NASCAR’s thorobreds that I just can’t look past him this week.

Week 6 of Last One Standing is in the books!

Check out for rules and to see how your team is doing! (Deadline each week is 5pm EST Saturday if the Cup race is on Sunday and 5pm EST Friday if the race is on a Saturday)

Samsung/Radio Shack 500 by the Numbers
Check out for the complete Power Ratings for Bristol.

Texas Horses for Courses Ratings Top Five
Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt Jr

Consistency Ratings Top Five
Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Elliot Sadler, Rusty Wallace

Power Ratings Top Five
Jimmie Johnson, Rusty Wallace, Jeff Gordon, Elliot Sadler, Ryan Newman

Handicapping the Race

Top Pick (13th Last Week; 1 for 6 for Season, Expect Top 5)
Jimmie Johnson- We just don’t see 31-point gaps between the top rating and second place that often…so go with the chalk at 5-1.

Strong Picks (1st, 5th, 26th Last Week; 9 for 18 for Season, Expect Top 10)
Kurt Busch- Roush horsepower should be really strong here

Elliot Sadler- An attractive pick at 16-1 odds, Sadler won here in the past and has a strong 4th place power rating.

Mark Martin- Mr. Consistency is a man on a mission…and one of those missions is to go out with a win in his final Cup season.

Hunch Bet (4th Last Week; 3 for 6 for Season, Expect Top 10)
Kasey Kahne- Jeff Burton and Dale Earnhardt Jr won their first Cup race here, could history repeat itself with Kasey breaking through?

Longshot (16th Last Week; 1 for 6 for Season, Expect Top 15)
Rusty Wallace- Second in the power ratings and over looked at 30-1 on the wagering board.

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Today on the Frontstretch:
Championship Caliber? What Does That Even Mean?
Mirror Driving: Winning Vs. Points, Needing a Boost, and The Lady’s Last Dance?
Nuts for Nationwide: The Curious Case of Elliott Sadler
Happiness Is…Arrogance, Less, Next, and the Outdoors
Frontstretch Foto Funnies: It’s Not Gonna Fit…


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