The Frontstretch: Fantasy Insight : Texas by Dennis Michelsen -- Thursday April 6, 2006

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Fantasy Insight : Texas

Dennis Michelsen · Thursday April 6, 2006

 

After years of handicapping all types of racing, I have found that each track has its own unique handicapping method. For example, my Dad’s racetrack buddy Charlie used to tear the program in half at Maywood Park’s half-mile harness racing track. The theory was simple; the outside horses didn’t have much of a chance! At Sportsman’s Park, if you got to the sixth race and beyond without the number five horse winning, my Dad would always bet on the five in the next race. More often than not, that theory worked, since the odds said that over the years the number five-post position won more often than any other.

With that in mind, I’ve found the easiest way to handicap a race at Texas is to analyze what I like to call the "Ten Gallon Hat" theory. Whoever would look the most idiotic in the hat in Victory lane usually wins! Unfortunately, there are so many drivers that look strange in a cowboy hat, so this theory is sometimes put to the test.

Good luck handicapping this week at Texas Motor Speedway"¦where the only thing bigger than the racing action might be the egos involved!

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By the Numbers: A Statistical Look at This Week’s Race
(Detailed stats at http://www.stockcarpitpass.com/stats.html)

Horses For Courses


Driver Car # Course Rating
Jimmie Johnson 48 93.8
Jeff Gordon 24 92.6
Matt Kenseth 17 91.2
Mark Martin 6 90.6
Carl Edwards 99 89.8
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8 89.4
Kurt Busch 2 89
Jamie McMurray 26 87.4
Casey Mears 42 85.6
Kyle Busch 5 84.8

Consistency Factor


Driver Car # Rating Over Last 5 Races
Mark Martin 6 92.8
Kyle Busch 5 92.4
Jimmie Johnson 48 91.6
Matt Kenseth 17 91.4
Jeff Gordon 24 91
Kasey Kahne 9 90.2
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8 88.8
Tony Stewart 20 86.2
Carl Edwards 99 84.2
Kevin Harvick 29 84.2

Track Type Factor


Driver Car # Rating On 1.5 Mile Tracks
Jimmie Johnson 48 94.2
Mark Martin 6 92
Carl Edwards 99 91
Greg Biffle 16 89.6
Tony Stewart 20 86.2
Dale Jarrett 88 85.4
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8 85
Matt Kenseth 17 84.6
Ryan Newman 12 84.4
Jeff Gordon 24 84

Power Rating


Driver Car # Rating Over Last 5 Races Course Rating Rating on 1.5 Mile Tracks Total
Jimmie Johnson 48 91.6 93.8 94.2 280
Mark Martin 6 92.8 90.6 92 275
Jeff Gordon 24 91 92.6 84 268
Matt Kenseth 17 91.4 91.2 84.6 267
Carl Edwards 99 84.2 89.8 91 265
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 8 88.8 89.4 85 263
Tony Stewart 20 86.2 84.2 86.2 257
Kyle Busch 5 92.4 84.8 78.2 255
Jamie McMurray 26 83.6 87.4 83.6 255
Greg Biffle 16 81.8 82.8 89.6 254
Dale Jarrett 88 84 83.8 85.4 253
Kurt Busch 2 83.8 89 79.6 252
Casey Mears 42 82.2 85.6 83.6 251
Kasey Kahne 9 90.2 80.4 78 249
Elliott Sadler 38 83 83 82.4 248
Kevin Harvick 29 84.2 83.6 78 246
Ryan Newman 12 81 79.6 84.4 245
Denny Hamlin 11 80.8 79.4 82.4 243
Reed Sorenson 41 81 78.6 82.4 242
Kyle Petty 45 78 79.2 82.8 240
Scott Riggs 10 80.4 81.8 76 238
Martin Truex, Jr. 8 79.4 78.8 79.8 238
Jeff Green 66 78.4 79.8 79.4 238
Jeff Burton 31 80.6 76.2 80.2 237
Joe Nemechek 01 78.4 75.8 82.6 237

Handicapping the Race

Win: Matt Kenseth

Roush Racing should be strong this week, and Matt looks dumb in a cowboy hat, too!

Place: Mark Martin

Comes off a tough survival test at the short tracks.

Show: Tony Stewart

Often known to go off on a nice win streak.

Top Rookie: J.J. Yeley

The surprise of the rookie class.

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©2000 - 2008 Dennis Michelsen and Frontstetch.com. Thanks for visiting the Frontstretch!

Yatesguy
04/09/2006 09:38 PM
permalink

Dennis, I will never doubt you again. Many years ago you gave me some good advice about Todd Bodine, Ever since then I have always valued your Fantasy Racing insight. But when I read about your “10 gallon hat theory” for Texas, I didn’t think you were serious. The most ridiculous mental image I could come up with was..you guessed it…Kasey Kahne! I lost a lot of fantasy points because of my lack of faith and I humbly bow in your general direction.

Grasshoper learn at speed of snail

 

Dennis no longer contributes to the Frontstretch, but you can Dennis's commentary at his website bio and archive page.