After years of handicapping all types of racing, I have found that each track has its own unique handicapping method. For example, my Dad’s racetrack buddy Charlie used to tear the program in half at Maywood Park’s half-mile harness racing track. The theory was simple; the outside horses didn’t have much of a chance! At Sportsman’s Park, if you got to the sixth race and beyond without the number five horse winning, my Dad would always bet on the five in the next race. More often than not, that theory worked, since the odds said that over the years the number five-post position won more often than any other.
With that in mind, I’ve found the easiest way to handicap a race at Texas is to analyze what I like to call the "Ten Gallon Hat" theory. Whoever would look the most idiotic in the hat in Victory lane usually wins! Unfortunately, there are so many drivers that look strange in a cowboy hat, so this theory is sometimes put to the test.
Good luck handicapping this week at Texas Motor Speedway"¦where the only thing bigger than the racing action might be the egos involved!
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By the Numbers: A Statistical Look at This Week’s Race
(Detailed stats at http://www.stockcarpitpass.com/stats.html)
Horses For Courses
| Driver | Car # | Course Rating |
| Jimmie Johnson | 48 | 93.8 |
| Jeff Gordon | 24 | 92.6 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17 | 91.2 |
| Mark Martin | 6 | 90.6 |
| Carl Edwards | 99 | 89.8 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 8 | 89.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 2 | 89 |
| Jamie McMurray | 26 | 87.4 |
| Casey Mears | 42 | 85.6 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 84.8 |
Consistency Factor
| Driver | Car # | Rating Over Last 5 Races |
| Mark Martin | 6 | 92.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 92.4 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 48 | 91.6 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17 | 91.4 |
| Jeff Gordon | 24 | 91 |
| Kasey Kahne | 9 | 90.2 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 8 | 88.8 |
| Tony Stewart | 20 | 86.2 |
| Carl Edwards | 99 | 84.2 |
| Kevin Harvick | 29 | 84.2 |
Track Type Factor
| Driver | Car # | Rating On 1.5 Mile Tracks |
| Jimmie Johnson | 48 | 94.2 |
| Mark Martin | 6 | 92 |
| Carl Edwards | 99 | 91 |
| Greg Biffle | 16 | 89.6 |
| Tony Stewart | 20 | 86.2 |
| Dale Jarrett | 88 | 85.4 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 8 | 85 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17 | 84.6 |
| Ryan Newman | 12 | 84.4 |
| Jeff Gordon | 24 | 84 |
Power Rating
| Driver | Car # | Rating Over Last 5 Races | Course Rating | Rating on 1.5 Mile Tracks | Total |
| Jimmie Johnson | 48 | 91.6 | 93.8 | 94.2 | 280 |
| Mark Martin | 6 | 92.8 | 90.6 | 92 | 275 |
| Jeff Gordon | 24 | 91 | 92.6 | 84 | 268 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17 | 91.4 | 91.2 | 84.6 | 267 |
| Carl Edwards | 99 | 84.2 | 89.8 | 91 | 265 |
| Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 8 | 88.8 | 89.4 | 85 | 263 |
| Tony Stewart | 20 | 86.2 | 84.2 | 86.2 | 257 |
| Kyle Busch | 5 | 92.4 | 84.8 | 78.2 | 255 |
| Jamie McMurray | 26 | 83.6 | 87.4 | 83.6 | 255 |
| Greg Biffle | 16 | 81.8 | 82.8 | 89.6 | 254 |
| Dale Jarrett | 88 | 84 | 83.8 | 85.4 | 253 |
| Kurt Busch | 2 | 83.8 | 89 | 79.6 | 252 |
| Casey Mears | 42 | 82.2 | 85.6 | 83.6 | 251 |
| Kasey Kahne | 9 | 90.2 | 80.4 | 78 | 249 |
| Elliott Sadler | 38 | 83 | 83 | 82.4 | 248 |
| Kevin Harvick | 29 | 84.2 | 83.6 | 78 | 246 |
| Ryan Newman | 12 | 81 | 79.6 | 84.4 | 245 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11 | 80.8 | 79.4 | 82.4 | 243 |
| Reed Sorenson | 41 | 81 | 78.6 | 82.4 | 242 |
| Kyle Petty | 45 | 78 | 79.2 | 82.8 | 240 |
| Scott Riggs | 10 | 80.4 | 81.8 | 76 | 238 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 8 | 79.4 | 78.8 | 79.8 | 238 |
| Jeff Green | 66 | 78.4 | 79.8 | 79.4 | 238 |
| Jeff Burton | 31 | 80.6 | 76.2 | 80.2 | 237 |
| Joe Nemechek | 01 | 78.4 | 75.8 | 82.6 | 237 |
Handicapping the Race
Win: Matt Kenseth
Roush Racing should be strong this week, and Matt looks dumb in a cowboy hat, too!
Place: Mark Martin
Comes off a tough survival test at the short tracks.
Show: Tony Stewart
Often known to go off on a nice win streak.
Top Rookie: J.J. Yeley
The surprise of the rookie class.
This Week on the Frontstretch:
Mirror Driving: Rebuilding Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Penske, And The NASCAR Banquet’s Future
The Only Thing Mutual? Penske, Kurt Busch Both Stand to Lose Big
Who Gets An Early Christmas Gift? Sorting Through Potential Busch Replacements
Burned At The YouTube Stake: How Technology Brought Busch Down
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: Justin Allgaier
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: A.J. Allmendinger
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: Aric Almirola
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: Marcos Ambrose
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: Michael Annett
2011 NASCAR Driver Review: Greg Biffle
2011 Driver Review Schedule
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