After years of handicapping all types of racing, I have found that each track has its own unique handicapping method. For example, my Dad’s racetrack buddy Charlie used to tear the program in half at Maywood Park’s half-mile harness racing track. The theory was simple; the outside horses didn’t have much of a chance! At Sportsman’s Park, if you got to the sixth race and beyond without the number five horse winning, my Dad would always bet on the five in the next race. More often than not, that theory worked, since the odds said that over the years the number five-post position won more often than any other.
With that in mind, I’ve found the easiest way to handicap a race at Texas is to analyze what I like to call the "Ten Gallon Hat" theory. Whoever would look the most idiotic in the hat in Victory lane usually wins! Unfortunately, there are so many drivers that look strange in a cowboy hat, so this theory is sometimes put to the test.
Good luck handicapping this week at Texas Motor Speedway"¦where the only thing bigger than the racing action might be the egos involved!
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By the Numbers: A Statistical Look at This Week’s Race
(Detailed stats at http://www.stockcarpitpass.com/stats.html)
Horses For Courses
|Driver||Car #||Course Rating|
|Dale Earnhardt, Jr.||8||89.4|
|Driver||Car #||Rating Over Last 5 Races|
|Dale Earnhardt, Jr.||8||88.8|
Track Type Factor
|Driver||Car #||Rating On 1.5 Mile Tracks|
|Dale Earnhardt, Jr.||8||85|
|Driver||Car #||Rating Over Last 5 Races||Course Rating||Rating on 1.5 Mile Tracks||Total|
|Dale Earnhardt, Jr.||8||88.8||89.4||85||263|
|Martin Truex, Jr.||8||79.4||78.8||79.8||238|
Handicapping the Race
Win: Matt Kenseth
Roush Racing should be strong this week, and Matt looks dumb in a cowboy hat, too!
Place: Mark Martin
Comes off a tough survival test at the short tracks.
Show: Tony Stewart
Often known to go off on a nice win streak.
Top Rookie: J.J. Yeley
The surprise of the rookie class.
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