The Frontstretch: Is It Already Bust Rather Than Chase For Juan Pablo Montoya? by Danny Peters -- Tuesday April 8, 2008

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Each week, NASCAR.com runs a short article on Juan Pablo Montoya. Entitled "Where's Juan?" it's a gentle look at what's going on in the world of the Bogota, Colombia native.

But where, exactly, is Juan these days? After Sunday's 19th place finish, two laps down, it's not a bad question — because for most of this year, he's been utterly anonymous. In fact, the start of the open-wheel convert’s sophomore season has been as bland as his rookie campaign was colorful.

Following the conclusion of Montoya's eventful 2007, car owner Chip Ganassi was optimistic about the prospects of the No. 42 headed into 2008. As he put it: “I don’t want to say ‘Chase or bust,’ but… Chase or bust.’‘ Ganassi hasn’t backed away from those comments; but after the seventh race of the season and no Top 10s, things aren’t looking pretty. After running as high as second in the late stages of the Daytona 500, Montoya faded to finish 32nd - the last car on the lead lap – and things haven’t been hitting on all cylinders since. Another ho-hum finish at Texas Sunday also reversed what had been a gentle upward curve in results for Montoya. He was 20th in California, 19th in Vegas, 16th in Atlanta, 15th at Bristol, and 13th two weeks ago at the little ol' paperclip in Martinsville. But Sunday's 19th place finish reversed the gradual incline, and certainly put Ganassi's preseason comments into stark perspective. In fact, the passionate car owner was hardly complimentary of his stock car operation when questioned at the IRL weekend in St. Petersburg, threatening major changes within his operation if things don’t start improving — and fast.

So, with the pressure on, have the Chase chances already gone bust for Montoya? Well, he's 135 points (and six spots) out of a playoff position, and you only need to look at the drivers above him who are on the outside looking in (Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. are 13th-16th, respectively), to know that making the Chase is going to require a stunning spell of fine form. In this crazy season, one thing is already clear, and that is the competition is going to be even more intense than ever. A high finish of 13th for Montoya is simply not going to get the job done in a season where 12th-place point man Kasey Kahne’s already collected four Top 10 finishes to his credit. The advantage Hendrick Motorsports had last season is all but erased, and RCR and Joe Gibbs Racing — not to mention Roush Fenway — have all raised their game to a similar level. For Montoya to force his way into Chase contention, he will have to outrun drivers from all four mega teams; and while his equipment is good, it's not that good.

But if anyone can reverse the trend and make a run at the Top 12, it's Juan Pablo Montoya. There are, after all, few drivers who have as glittering and varied a driving resume. The man has won in Formula One cars, Champ Cars, Indy Cars, Grand Am prototype cars, and stock cars; the only other driver to have done so is Mario Andretti. Some of Montoya’s most prestigious victories include the Indianapolis 500 at his first attempt, the Monaco Grand Prix, and the Rolex 24, again upon making his debut. It can be argued that the Colombian's decision to defect from F-1 in 2006 was more a question of expediency; his contract with McLaren was expiring at the end of the season, and it was unlikely he was going to get a quality ride. (In Formula One, even more than NASCAR, you're absolutely stuffed without top-level equipment). So, when Montoya announced his intentions, there were many both in the Formula One garage and in the media who opined that NASCAR was just an easy way out of a tough situation. Little did they know.

Montoya's deal with Chip Ganassi was announced in June 2006, but it was not until October that he ran his first competitive race. Driving in the ARCA Series at Talladega (of all places) he qualified second, led the first nine laps, and finished third in a rain-shortened race. He ran the last four Nationwide Series races thereafter — with a top finish of 11th in his first race at Memphis — before successfully qualifying 29th for the final race of the Cup season at Homestead, Miami. Montoya was running just outside the Top 10 in that race on lap 251 when Ryan Newman, who he had tussled with all day, gave the Colombian a "welcome to NASCAR" shove into the outside wall as payback for an earlier wreck — causing the back of Montoya's car to burst violently into flames. It was, by any standards, quite the debut; but nothing less than was expected from a man not world renowned at keeping his temper in check.

While Montoya's 2006 cameo was memorable, 2007 proved to be even more so; if you're in any doubt of that, just Youtube his contretemps with Harvick at Watkins Glen. A cursory glance at the statistics shows a respectable "Rookie of the Year" 20th place finish in the standings; discounting the win at Infineon, he had two more Top 5s and three other Top 10 finishes. But as the struggles of the other "open wheel" drivers in 2008 have proved, Montoya punched above his weight - both literally and figuratively. It took him just three races to pick up his maiden Nationwide Series victory with a barnstorming performance at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico; in that one, his desire to win was so evident that with eight laps to go, he all but ran over his teammate Scott Pruett to take the lead, and ultimately, the checkered flag. Two weeks later, back in the Cup Series Montoya ran the high line at Atlanta (a track he was seeing for the first time) to a fifth place finish - his first career Top 5 in just his sixth start at the Cup level.

After winning the NASCAR Rookie Of The Year title easily in 2007, Montoya’s been left frowning during 2008’s follow-up tour.

Thirteen races later, Montoya picked up his inaugural Sprint Cup Series victory on the road course in Sonoma; but the race was far from a processional to the checkers. Qualifying 32nd, Montoya drove to the front through pit strategy, sneaking past Jamie McMurray with seven laps remaining to take that elusive checkered flag. But fuel was absolutely an issue (the No. 26 ran out with a couple to go) and there was every chance the No. 42 would suffer the same fate; however, he held on to record that organization's first victory in five years. (Ironically, the last Ganassi driver to win a Sprint Cup race was Jamie McMurray in what was then just his second race at the top echelon).

What was interesting about the win at Sonoma was that Montoya's prime emotion in Victory Lane was one of relief as opposed to unmitigated joy. He'd proved he could do it - albeit on a course everyone expected him to win - but now, he was part of an elite group of just 178 drivers who'd won a race at the Sprint Cup level. That spoke volumes about his ability to successfully adjust to stock cars, and the Colombian knew he’d climbed a hurdle.

The prior confidence is important, because wins are what Montoya is going to need if he is to claw his way back into Chase contention. Looking at the next eight races, Montoya has a best finish of 15th and only one Top 10 in any of them for his career (10th at Dover). Admittedly, it's a small sample size, but that doesn't bode well for his future prospects. The ninth race for Montoya is Infineon; but if he continues to run in a similar fashion like he’s doing now, a win there will be far too late.

So, is it Chase or bust? On the evidence so far I'd say bust; but Montoya is not a driver to discount glibly, and crew chief Donnie Wingo is in many ways the perfect foil for this situation. Their growing understanding can only help, despite the occasional language barrier; as Wingo noted, "99.9 percent of the time, I’m the only one that understands … anything he says." But communication concerns aside, time is of the essence for them both; with every finish outside the Top 10, Montoya is heaping soil onto an already large mountain he has to climb to get back into the Top 12. The message is clear: if Montoya wants to make the Chase this season, he needs to get going sooner rather than later. Phoenix would be a good place to start.

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Today on the Frontstretch:
Swan Racing Announces Restructuring, No. 26 & No. 30 ‘Sold’ Off
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Ken O
04/08/2008 09:41 AM
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If Montoya keeps getting in the way and blocking the front runners, the drivers will eventually “assist” him to get him off the track and out of their way. They will need to do it before he causes someone to get hurt.

He’s a media darling that needs to get his act together and get better at driving a Cup Car before he blocks the other drivers who are running in front.

pete
04/08/2008 12:19 PM
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JPM is a talented driver who will underperform if he stays with Ganassi. As disloyal at it sounds, he won’t be able to show his full abilities until get moves on. I’m not saying he’ll ever reach the level of Gordon or Johnson. But there’s no reason he couldn’t quickly rise to the level of J. Burton or even Harvick. Hey, there’s a 4th seat opening at Childress!

sparxmoore
04/08/2008 12:52 PM
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JUAN PROBLEM needs to forget the chase and start lining up his IRL deal …The guy is MEDIOCRE at best ,and will NEVER get used to havin fenders ! GANSSI should have known better …image only sells if you are at least competitive!

reality check
04/08/2008 03:32 PM
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Juan is doing great. He has turned bad car days into decent finishes. Also…why don’t you take a look at how many drivers have finished in the top 20 every race since Daytona. You won’t see many names there.
Ganassi’s comments did NOT implicate Juan as implied in the article. You should provide the quote if you are going to paraphrase incorrectly. Heck, he even let Dario off the hook.

Ricky Martin
04/08/2008 04:05 PM
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JPM sucks. He wont ever be a top 5 driver. He needs to go back to where he came from along with Toyota and stop diluting the sport of its american purity. NASCAR needs more Augusta National and less Global NBA thinking!

McQuiston
04/08/2008 04:25 PM
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As DW so eloquently puts it, Juan is the loneliest number.

Montoya is finding out NASCAR ain’t full of a bunch of redneck mediocre drivers. He’s now up against the best in the world.

True he is handicapped by the fact Ganassi gives him a so-so product to drive.

The Sonoma victory was a fluke, yet boosted the value of Juan’s stock.

What can you say? Welcome to the world of real racers, open wheel guys!

Hollis
04/09/2008 04:56 AM
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NASCAR needs more Augusta National and less Global NBA thinking!”

Might I be so bold as to suggest that you need to perhaps be less inclined towards bigoted thinking ? If NASCAR is to prove itself as a premier racing series, it needs global drivers and manufacturers to give it credibility.

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