The Frontstretch: Is It Worth Making the Chase If You’re Just Making Up the Numbers? by Danny Peters -- Tuesday July 13, 2010

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Is It Worth Making the Chase If You’re Just Making Up the Numbers?

The Yellow Stripe · Danny Peters · Tuesday July 13, 2010


In the next couple of months, we’re going to hear a lot about who’s going to make, and who’s not going to make, the all-hallowed Chase. Each week, drivers will be added, then deleted to and from the equation while, for those on the bubble, the speculation will (in true shout-until-your-lungs-burst WE ARE FOX SPORTS style) be cranked up to the absolute max! Announcers, broadcasters, and journalists working ESPN and all the ancillary NASCAR programming on SPEED, etc. will whip the viewing public into a frenzy, with continual discussions of who’ll make the field of twelve. In short, then, between now and the Richmond cutoff race pretty much most of what we’ll focus on, in terms of this sport, will be about the four or five drivers on both the immediate positive and negative side of the critical dividing line. You can almost script the post-race interviews at the three-quarter mile Virginia circuit now, as the euphoric driver who’s scraped in by the skin of his teeth thanks everyone he’s ever known and proclaims love for his pit crew and head wrench, while the driver (or drivers) that miss out by a handful of points stare ruefully at the interviewer and explain how it’s just one of “them racing deals.”

Why do we Race to the Chase if there is no real hope of winning it all?

When it’s all said and done, though, my question, really, is this: Does making the Chase even matter if you’re going to be out of contention before we even make race number four? Is being the worst of the best even relevant anymore? I’d argue it’s almost better to miss out altogether then be there and hopelessly out of contention. Let’s use Tony Stewart as an example here. Having won his second Cup title in 2005, Smoke missed out on the 2006 Chase and promptly won three of the final ten races (Kansas on a fuel mileage gamble, Atlanta, and Texas.) His attitude was simple – “wreckers or checkers” – and it worked to a tee. Looking at the standings today, and specifically those in the Chase, you could make a fair argument that only really 5-6 drivers stand a realistic chance of winning the Championship (based on form to date.) For the likes of the three Roush Fenway wheelmen (Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth), Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, and even Stewart, you’d have to say that, barring a stunning run of form, these drivers will just be there to make up the numbers. And if they are, is there any point to them being a part of the playoffs? Arguably not. If you want to take a topical example, each country represented in the World Cup took 23 players – per the FIFA rules — many of whom didn’t see so much as a single minute. Yes, they were proud to be there, and to represent their country, but ultimately they didn’t influence the outcome.

On the one hand, the obvious answer to my question is yes, of course – every driver aspires to make the Chase (and then run for a Championship). Making the field of 12 is, de facto, a successful season and it can help with the myriad of issues surrounding sponsors and contracts, no doubt. In the case of a driver like, say, David Reutimann (or Juan Pablo Montoya last year – more on his performance later) just making the Chase is a sure sign of progress, of positive momentum. If the Reut backs up his almost universally popular win at Chicagoland last Saturday night, strings together a slew of top-5s, and ekes his way into the Chase, it will be a huge success for all involved not just for the driver, but for the entire Michael Waltrip operation. In those kind of cases, then making up the numbers is, in the short-term, acceptable. But, if you’re 200+ points back by the time the second race of the Chase, at Dover’s Monster Mile, is over, then your championship chances (unless your last name is Johnson and your crew chief an evil genius), are toast and you may as well not have been there in the first place. A good example here is Kyle Busch, who won eight “regular season” races in 2008, then flamed out of the Chase before it had really even begun with a couple of subpar performances.

Now, the advantage of a system like the Chase is that you can be miles off the pace (in terms of overall points) at the cutoff and still mount a very respectable challenge. A case in point, here, is the aforementioned Colombian Montoya. Having taken a cautious, steady-as-she-goes type approach to making the “elite” field, Montoya served notice to his competitors in the first five races that he was very definitely for real when the serious business was on the line. Ironically, given the vast improvement we’ve seen at EGR, the Colombian could yet be even more of a factor in 2010. Trouble is he’s a long way back (21st place, 242 points out of 12th) so barring an incredible run of form in the upcoming weeks, he’s going to miss out.

So, while “making the Chase” is the goal of every driver who straps into a Cup car seat, the reality is that even once the field has been divided between the Chase participants and the rest, the fact remains that only about half the Chase field are realistic contenders. Now, no driver is going to be silly enough to say he doesn’t care but being close is one thing, being a championship combatant another one altogether. And for the likes of the Roush drivers, it just reinforces the gap between their levels of performance and those of the Hendrick and Joe Gibbs drivers. The trouble is the Chase has created a whole subculture within the sport: Bonus points, who’s in, who’s on the outside looking in, who should and shouldn’t make the Chase and so on, ad nauseum. For those who make the field, then fade almost instantly into obscurity, being so near and yet so far must be beyond frustrating. To conclude, then, my argument would be that it depends on who you are. If you’re an upcoming driver, then heck yeah, it makes a difference. If you’re someone like Carl Edwards, the Biff, or Matt Kenseth, then frankly my answer would be no. Kenseth’s legacy, for example, will not be defined by a ninth or tenth-place finish this year. Ultimately, all the drivers want to finish as high as possible in the overall standings, but I’d be interested to know (and candidly, I can’t imagine ever getting a true answer on this) how much the drivers care when they know they’re not realistic contenders even if they make the Chase field. With all the banalities spewed in NASCAR interviews, wouldn’t it be fascinating to hear what drivers really thought on this particular point? I won’t be holding my breath for this to happen, though…

Two final points to finish up this week:

Wasn’t it great to see the unconfined joy and relief on The Reut’s face in Victory Lane on Saturday evening at Chicagoland Speedway? Now no one can talk about rain-shortened triumphs; this victory was one the amiable MWR wheelman won fair and square, as they say, and no one can suggest otherwise. Too often in top-level sport, the bad guys pick up the big prizes. Reut’s success is a victory for the little guy; for the common people, and I, for one, am absolutely delighted for him.

And finally, congratulations to Spain, who won their first ever World Cup this past Sunday afternoon with a 1-0 defeat of the Netherlands. While it was tough on the team in orange (this is the third time Holland has lost in a World Cup final — 1974, 1978, and 2010) it’s fair to say the best team won, and that’s really all you can ask for after such a compelling competition. Plus, it was good to see one of the typically unheralded players, Andres Iniesta, score the crucial goal. Hope still springs eternal that one day I might see my beloved England pick up the Jules Rimet trophy, but for now those dreams will go back in the proverbial locker as we cast our eyes to the next competition in Brazil in 2014.

Enjoy your weekend off, folks.

Contact Danny Peters

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Today on the Frontstretch:
Did You Notice? … Breaking Down A Sprint Cup Season Eight Races In
Beyond the Cockpit: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. on Growing Up Racing and Owner Loyalties
The Frontstretch Five: Flaws Exposed In the New Chase So Far
NASCAR Writer Power Rankings: Top 15 After Darlington
NASCAR Mailbox: Past Winners Aren’t Winning …. Yet
Open Wheel Wednesday: How Can IndyCar Stand Out?


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Kevin in SoCal
07/13/2010 12:46 PM

This is exactly why I think my idea of “5 drivers, 5 races, have at it boys!” would make sense as a change to the Chase. By the time you get down to the final few races, only a handful of drivers are seriously in contention anyway, under this point system or the previous point system. 10 races is just too long and allows for too many mistakes to take you out of it.
And speaking of what the drivers would actually say, I remember Matt Kenseth saying last year before Richmond, that even if he made the Chase, he and his team were not running competitively enough to win it anyway, so it didnt matter.

larry bennett
07/13/2010 05:26 PM

Yes, all drivers should strive to make the Chase. My point is simply this: in this sport, Jimmie Johnson aside (he always peaks and the Chase should reviolve its tracks from year to year, but that’s a whole other hot mess), it is possible to work all year and get things together for this final stretch of races. So I do believge that the Edwards’ and Kenseth’s of the world do stand a chance, no matter how uninspiring they have been running all year. You gotta be in it to win it. Technology being a big part of this sport, who knows which crew chief will hit upon that winning formula, and sometimes it does take 26 races to get there…but again, there is only one Knaus.

07/14/2010 07:21 AM

You know…I got up this my coffee..and settled in to read the newest postings on Jayskis. As I looked down the list of columns offered I realized something…it’s not about the racing anymore…it’s not about the drivers or the teams or even the fans…It’s all about the ever changing, contrived, micromanaged CHASE…that’s it…that’s all that is left of the sport…THE CHASE..the who, what’s and why’s of the CHASE..from the Daytona 500 to Homestead..that’s all there is. If you make the top 12 (or 10 or 15) as a are worthy..if you don’t you are dogmeat. If you are a track who gets a race in the CHASE you are worthy..if not you are dogmeat. If you are a team in the are worth money and media attention and sponsor support..if not..well you might as well start and park. If you are a fan who roots for a driver in the can display your drivers number proudly..if not..what the hell were you thinking??? It’s all about the CHASE..and I personally am sitting here thinking….What the hell were they thinking? I hear it in the commercial..but I am wondering…Where has “MY NASCAR” gone????

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