The Frontstretch: Five Points to Ponder: Kyle Keeping Pace, Who's Out Of The Chase, And Denny Saving Face by Danny Peters -- Tuesday September 28, 2010

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Two down, eight to go. Like it or not, the Chase for the Sprint Cup is now in full swing and whilst, for a second straight time this year, the race at the home of Miles the Monster wasn’t exactly, well… monstrous, a number of key themes still emerged, one that might just define exactly who will hoist the sterling silver trophy come the checkered flag at Homestead in less than two months. As we stand, headed to Kansas for race number three of ten this Sunday afternoon, seven drivers are within 83 markers of points leader Denny Hamlin, who just about emerged unscathed from what could have been a disastrous weekend through much of his own making. But we’ll get to his salvageable Sunday in a minute; instead, let’s start with the man who is, without question, the biggest threat of them all:

ONE: Ominous Signs as the Drive for Five Heats Up…

Maximum Points Day. They’re three words that are all but guaranteed to strike fear into the Chase combatants, especially when they’re pertaining to another dominant Double J performance. Sunday at Dover marked his 53rd win in 319 races – a remarkable clip in this age of increased competition, along with his NASCAR best 19th Chase victory in just 62 career playoff starts. That’s an astonishing winning percentage of 30.6 in the postseason, compared to a rate of 17% for all his races combined – not too shabby in its own right.

So Sunday’s trip to the Monster Mile was always likely to be a good day for the champion, who’s now won three of the last four Dover races, led 1,622 career laps there, and hasn’t finished lower than 16th since 2004. Denny Hamlin said after the checkers what every one of his rivals was thinking heading in, admitting Sunday night he not just anticipated but expected to lose ground to the No. 48. But don’t expect this team to leave the Monster Mile and be a one-hit wonder. Here’s the bad news for the rest of the field: The Champ’s pretty good at Kansas (8 starts, 1 win, 6 top-10’s, average finish of 10.2) and he’s practically unbeatable at Auto Club Speedway (15 starts, 5 wins [4 of the last 6 races], average finish of 5.5). With the way Johnson rattles off victories, don’t be surprised to see him dominate the next two weeks, especially considering the level of focus we saw from both him, Chad Knaus, and everyone surrounding the program this weekend. While other drivers stole the limelight, this team calmly went about its business, letting distractions fall elsewhere while beating their challengers into submission.

Considering the 57-point chunk he took out of the points in just one race, that type of performance from Johnson every week is a sobering thought. So for all the much-vaunted “closer than ever” Chase conversations there have been, it could be all over much quicker than we think. Scary stuff for the rest of the field, that’s for sure.

TWO: A Solid top-10 End to a Chaotic Weekend for Denny Hamlin

While Hamlin’s weekend started with angry words and a broken bumper, he managed to pull out a solid finish and keep his points lead. Stay focused, Denny!

Whatever happens to Denny Hamlin this season, the simple truth is he’s had a really good year. He overcame an ACL surgery on his knee that I can say firsthand is all kinds of terrible, and he lived up to his “preseason favorite not named Johnson” billing by winning six of the 26 regular season races and starting the Chase atop the points.

But this weekend’s snafu, following comments about Bowyer and RCR, was just completely unnecessary. It was a mess entirely of his own making, and despite gaining some credit for saying what he thinks, the fact was Hamlin should have left it well alone. Distractions can wreck a driver’s Chase chances just like that, and the fifth-year veteran should remember that the next time he sits in front of a bank of microphones.

Despite it all, you do have to give the man credit; he got through his statistically worst track with the points lead intact and a terrific (for him at Dover) ninth-place finish. It’s just a shame that performance was tempered by the emergence of a rival (Harvick) and some unwanted press that could come back to bite him down the stretch. Two races in, there’s no doubt this No. 11 team is for real, but they need to be careful from here on out. A repeat of the shenanigans we saw this past weekend will likely cost Hamlin big time.

THREE: Who’s Done Already?

In the last month or so, rumors are that NASCAR has been floating a few format-related playoff trial balloons for 2011. The plan is, apparently, to introduce a system which includes more drivers in the initial Chase field, and then eliminates the lowest-ranked participants at specific points throughout the playoffs itself. While the idea has merit, I can’t help but feel that it’s unnecessary, and here’s why: Drivers will eliminate themselves from contention without any assistance. Take Clint Bowyer, for example. If his points deduction stands up (and does anyone honestly think the decision will be reversed?) he is, for all intents and purposes, done at 235 points behind. And he’s not the only one. Kenseth at 165 points back is another; although far from mathematically eliminated, you have to feel he isn’t making a sustained run at the title. Tony Stewart, down 162 markers, and Greg Biffle, 140 points back, are also in big trouble after showing little if any signs of life at the Monster Mile. Expect by the time we roll out of Auto Club Speedway, then, post-race number four, at least half the field will be all but eliminated from realistic contention if these patterns continue.

FOUR: “Quiet” Kyle Right in the Mix…

There’s always a lot of white noise around Kyle Busch. But here’s the thing, folks; if you’re looking for a dark horse, he might very well be the man. Let’s review his recent form: He picked up the win (and the triple) at Thunder Valley, then ran fifth at Atlanta and second at Richmond behind his teammate Denny Hamlin to wrap up the regular season. Then, last weekend, he finished a respectable ninth, and on Sunday he followed that up with a sixth-place finish at the Monster Mile. 2010 marks the fourth time in five years Kyle has made the Chase — he missed out last year by a measly eight points to Brian Vickers -– but this might just be the first time he has the knowledge, the speed, the maturity, the experience, and the crew to get it done. That “total package” has already paid major dividends, just the second time he’s been within 100 points after race two (the other was in 2007, when he was halfway out the door at Hendrick, headed to Gibbs and never considered a serious contender). Even more importantly, it’s a Kyle Busch who has learned how to run a “bad” (and that’s a relative term) car to a solid finish in 2010, with Dover the latest example: a bout with the outside wall left him fading but resilient in fighting for sixth. Whereas in years past, he might have spontaneously combusted and fired a string of expletives across his radio, this year you just get the sense that he has found a streak, albeit a smallish one, of maturity that can serve him extremely well paired with new crew chief Dave Rogers. Don’t forget, either, that the last time he made the Chase (after an eight-win, points leading regular season) he had his worst playoff performance of the four, finishing 34th and then dead last in the first two races to put himself in an insurmountable hole. Considering 2010 is already about a million times more rosy, you better watch him.

FIVE: Tough Luck, But Reasons to be Cheerful for A.J. Allmendinger

Foster Gillett and Richard Petty had reason to smile on Sunday, as their recent contract extension for A.J. Allmendinger was validated by the best all-around performance the No. 43 car has had on an unrestricted oval in years.

It’s all about the Chase at the moment, so it was good to see a non-Chaser get up on the wheel and lead some laps at Dover. And just to underline how solid a performance it was from A.J. Allmendinger, he led 100 more laps (143 in total) than he had throughout his entire 107-race career at the Sprint Cup level up to that point. It was a watershed moment for the King, as well, whose No. 43 car hadn’t led that many laps in one race since Bobby Hamilton paced the field for 331 at Martinsville all the way back in September, 1996. As he noted post-race, “No wonder Jimmie is smiling so much. It’s actually a lot of fun to lead.” Unfortunately for A.J., an early pit stop on Lap 172, thanks to a deflating tire, paired with an ill-timed caution saw him slip out of contention. It took the final 200 laps or so just for him to work his way back on the lead lap and climb up to 10th, hampered by long green-flag stretches which made it near-impossible to earn back a large chunk of his track position.

On another day, it could have been different, but Sunday’s strong performance gave A.J. a little teaser of what it’s like to run up front consistently. I, for one, hope to see that more often from the likable wheelman of the “winningest” number in NASCAR history.

Tuesday on the Frontstretch:
Who’s Hot / Who’s Not In NASCAR: Dover-Kansas Edition
No Bull: Can The Third Year Be The Charm For Joey Logano?
Which Is Worse: The Chase, Or A Single Dominant Driver?
Talking NASCAR TV: Poor Commercial Decisions Lowlight Of ESPN’s ‘Overkill Coverage’

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Carl D.
09/28/2010 08:09 AM
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All great points, Danny.

I’m a fan of A.J., but it always seems that something is going on around RPM that keeps it from being able to focus on the cars. Sponsors, driver contracts, adding teams, cutting teams… the list goes on. Before the RPM teams can put together consistent runs and contend for championships, there needs to be some consistency in the day-to-day management of the whole organization.

Josh
09/28/2010 08:55 AM
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Carl, I honestly think RPM is on the rise. Next year, they’ll have Ambrose (Who’s better than his results show) and a surging Allmendinger…….next year could be a breakout year for the whole team.

Add in the fact that they’re downsizing from 4 teams to 2, and they’ll be able to take all the best guys from their 4 current teams and compress them into 2.

Jacob
09/28/2010 09:08 AM
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Carl D: Well said. Too much turbulence, too little speed and consistency.

Point 1: Historically, after having a bad week, JJ and the 48 crew come back looking stronger than ever the next. I didn’t expect much less.

Point 2: Denny looks ready to fight with RCR and not for the championship. He needs to learn to focus and not be distracted. While a 9th place finish at Dover is solid for him, it is barely in the top 10.

Point 3: Didn’t I say it last week? Actually I said it in Kurt’s column, but I stand by it. Loudon is always a beating, banging affair. I said Dover would eliminat 1 or 2 more from realistic contention, and it happened. History does not disappoint.

Point 4: With Kyle’s talent, it is hard to rule him out of contention for anything. (He might just win control of Congress come November) I’m not sure Kyle and Denny are solid enough teammates to help each other win a championship. Time will tell, but Kyle is still 2 years from his first. (Just my humble prediction)

Point 5: AJ is a serious racer, if only he had some serious equipment backed up by a solid team. I would love to know what advice Mike Skinner whispered in his ear, back in 2008. Whatever it was, it seems to have unlocked the secret of controlling a stock car in AJ’s head

Jacob
09/28/2010 09:58 AM
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@ Josh: I hope you are right. As for me, I have been hearing Petty, resurgance, reliability, and ‘on the rise’, since 1993. I am too jaded to think that it actually means something this time. Until this team proves it, they are just a team treading water as they inevitably drown.

DansMom: Thank you for agreeing.

Josh
09/28/2010 11:22 AM
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Yeah, but things are different now.

1—-this isn’t Petty enterprises
2—-The two driver tandem they’ll have next year is arguably their (we’ll say “Evernham”) best lineup since Kahne/Mayfield in ’04 and ’05.
3—-All the drama with Sadler will be over at the end of this year when he’s given his walking papers.

AJ and Marcos are noth signed, with sponsors, for the nest 3 years. I really, truly believe they’re finally gonna gain some stability starting next year (and in fact, AJ’s recent runs are proof-positive of that)

HankZ
09/28/2010 01:13 PM
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The ‘Dinger is a Chase spoiler…so far…hey, who called it? :)

Unfortunately, I fear the way he’s up on the wheel and coming on strong at the end of this year, he will be the Reutimann of ’09 and the Ragan of ’08 for ’11.

Carl and Jacob nailed it too, there’s always some kind of distraction at RPM for their drivers to put their best foot forward.

FWIW anyway…Go ‘Dinger!

Jacob
09/28/2010 03:49 PM
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Josh, in my heart I would love to see Richard Petty’s name do well. It is too historic of a name to just watch fall by the wayside. I like what I see from them right now, but that doesn’t say anything about how they will look in 2011.
The positive thing is that if NA$CAR opens up the chase field so that Jr. cant possibly miss it, there will be several teams that make the chase next season that didn’t have a prayer this year.
I agree with you that Marcos is better than his finishes, and that AJ looks more solid every week.
I hope you are right, but I reserve Judgement until early next season.

DoninAjax
09/28/2010 07:10 PM
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“Maximum Points Day.”

Not “Maximum WINS Day.”

Sharon
09/29/2010 11:20 AM
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I think Kyle Busch will only win championships when he focuses on the series that is most important to him….Sprint Cup. Sure, its okay to have a little fun in the other series, but not the way he does it. The same with Carl Edwards as well…

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