The Frontstretch: McLaughlin's Daytona 500 Driver Handicaps by Matt McLaughlin -- Wednesday February 14, 2007

Go to site navigation Go to article

McLaughlin's Daytona 500 Driver Handicaps

Matt McLaughlin · Wednesday February 14, 2007

 

Author's Note: In preparing the handicaps for the first five races of 2007, I will be using the Top 20 points finishers of 2006, just as NASCAR uses the same criteria for the first five races. After the fifth race, the handicaps will reflect this year's Top 20 points positions.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson won last year's Daytona 500, and hgis 32nd place result in last year's Firecracker 400 ended a streak of five finishes of sixth or better in Daytona points races. On the plate tracks lately, the Hendrick cars always seem to be contenders.

Matt Kenseth: Kenseth's fifth place finish here last July was his first ever Top 5 at Daytona in a points race. He had just four additional top 10 results here in fourteen points race starts, and his average finish is about twentieth.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin won last year's Bud Shootout, but finished a less than memorable 30th in the next weekend's 500. He rebounded nicely with a 17th place finish here in last year's Firecracker, though. If Hamlin hooks up with teammate Tony Stewart, he should do OK.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick's best Cup point race finishes at Daytona are a pair of fourths, and a ninth place finish here last July ended a streak of four consecutive Daytona finishes of fourteenth or worse. Harvick does have three runner-up finishes in Daytona Busch events. (It is still the Busch Series for one more year, right?)

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Junior won the 2004 Daytona 500 and the 2001 Firecracker 400 at Daytona. He was also the runner-up in the tragic 2001 500 that claimed his father's life. A thirteenth place finish here last July ended Earnhardt's streak of seven consecutive top 10 finishes at a track where even finishing seven consecutive races is a notable achievement.

Jeff Gordon: Gordon has won three Daytona 500s and three Firecrackers. He has Top 10 finishes in more than half his 28 points race starts here, but last year, Gordon struggled at Daytona with a 26th place finish in the 500 and a DNF last July. Still, he and Earnhardt have to be considered favorites heading into this year's 500 based on their plate track results.

Jeff Burton: Most race fans will recall Dale Earnhardt won the 1998 Daytona 500. How many remember Jeff Burton finished second that day? That was one of five Top 5 finishes Burton has managed in 26 points starts at Daytona, but his average finish in the last six points races here is worse than 25th.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne hasn't found the magic at Daytona in a Cup car. He's averaging a 23rd place finish in six starts here, with a best result of eleventh in last year's 500.

Mark Martin: Oddly enough, Martin has never won a points race here in 43 starts. He does have eight Top 5 finishes in those 43 starts, but with a part-time effort this year, Martin winning the Daytona 500 (or even managing a Top 10 finish) would be a bit of a shock.

Kyle Busch: Busch finished second here in last summer’s Firecracker 400, but his other three Cup points finishes at Daytona have been dismal to be kind. His Busch record here is similarlyunspectacular.

Tony Stewart: Stewart has won the last two Firecracker 400s and finished second in the 2004 Daytona 500. Over the last six points races at Daytona, Stewart has been averaging better than a fourth place finish. If the win doesn't go to D.E.I. or Hendrick Racing this weekend, it will be Stewart in Victory Lane.

Carl Edwards: Edwards has failed to finish two of the last three Daytona points races, both times because of wrecks, and he finished dead last in last year's Daytona 500. He did manage a twelfth place finish here back in February of '05, but it's been downhill here ever since.

Greg Biffle: Biffle won the 2003 Firecracker 400, but has only one other Top 20 finish in Daytona points races in eight stabs at the joint. In fact, he's only led two additional laps here since posting that win.

Casey Mears: Mears struggled mightily here in his first six starts at Daytona, but he finished second in last year's 500 and seventh here in July.

Brian Vickers: Vickers won the last NASCAR plate race (in controversial style) at Talladega last fall. But this year, he's left the Hendrick team which has enjoyed so much success on the plate tracks and traded his Monte Carlo in for one of them new make cars that smells like a five-alarmer at the Uncle Ben's factory. Not looking good for him.

Kurt Busch: It's feast or famine here for Busch. His five Top 5 finishes here (including a second place finish in the '05 Daytona 500) are offset by six finishes of thirtieth or worse in twelve Daytona point race starts.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer fared pretty well at Daytona last year as a rookie; he finished sixth and tenth in the two 2006 Daytona points races. If he'd run that well all of last season, people would still be asking "Denny who?"

Ryan Newman: Newman is averaging a nineteenth place finish at this track, but did manage a credible third place result in last year's 500. This driver desperately needs to get this season off on the right foot and not on his roof.

Martin Truex, Jr.: Truex won a Daytona Busch Series race in 2005, but hasn't been a factor in a Cup car at Daytona to date despite driving for D.E.I. Certainly, he'll be waiting in line for the porta-potties after what happened in his last visit to Daytona.

Scott Riggs: Riggs failed to qualify for last year's Daytona 500. That might just have spared him additional humiliation, though, because he's averaging a 24th place finish here despite a fourth place result in the Daytona 500 of 2005.

Others To Watch

Dale Jarrett: Jarrett has won four points races at Daytona, including three 500s. But he's being hampered this year by his new Toy car, so it’s tough to know what to expect.

Michael Waltrip: Waltrip has posted three Daytona points victories including two Daytona 500 wins (one race was marred by tragedy, the other shortened by rain). But the question as this is written has to be will Waltrip even qualify for this year's 500?

Still looking for that fantasy league to join this season? Think YOU have what it takes to beat the experts at Frontstretch? Click here to sign up NOW for the Frontstretch Game of Tomorrow. Frontstretch’s NEW Fantasy Game administered by our own Fantasy Racing experts Cami Starr and Mike Neff. Hurry up…the game starts this week!

NASCAR NEWS, RIGHT TO YOUR INBOXAND IT’S FREE.
The Frontstretch Newsletter, back in 2014 gives you more of the daily news, commentary, and racing features from your favorite writers you know and love. Don’t waste another minute – click here to sign up now. We’re here to make sure you stay informed … so make sure you jump on for the ride!

Today on the Frontstretch:
Racing to the Point: NASCAR Has Its Own Heartbreak Kid
Beyond the Cockpit: Brittany Force, the Fastest Force
Voices from the Cheap Seats: Advertising for Dummies
Who’s Hot / Who’s Not in Sprint Cup: Off Week-Richmond Edition
Couch Potato Tuesday: Picking The Best IndyCar On-Air Personalities
FREE NEWSLETTER! CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP

 

©2000 - 2008 Matt McLaughlin and Frontstetch.com. Thanks for visiting the Frontstretch!

Terry
02/15/2007 04:24 AM
permalink

I see that Matt isn’t doing any better checking his facts before he posts his articles since moving over to Frontstretch.com. He is always blasting the TV commentators by calling them names when they make a mistake, but he continually makes mistakes himself. Maybe he should make sure his facts are correct before goes blasting others for doing the same.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin won last year’s Bud Shootout, but finished a less than memorable seventeenth in the next weekend’s 500. He rebounded nicely with a sixth place finish here in last year’s Firecracker, though. If Hamlin hooks up with teammate Tony Stewart, he should do OK.

Denny finished 30th in the Daytona 500, not 17th; and he finished 17th in the “Firecracker” not 6th.

Keep up the great work Matt…

Editor
02/15/2007 09:40 AM
permalink

The mistake has been corrected, Terry. Keep in mind Matt sends his columns in to the editors, so we’re just as at fault as anyone for this mistake.

Thanks for pointing out the error and reading FS!

rob fischer
02/15/2007 06:29 PM
permalink

ya know matt, don’t let DJ’s sandbagging in the speedweeks fool you, that Toy car will slice through the field, after the 30 car pileup with 15 to go, and he might only slice at 15 MPH while other cars sit and smolder, but hey, it always seems to work. but in reality, the RYR cars will be the threat of the weekend, how could they not with all that raw horsepower, i look for Gilliland to perform well, with help from Rudd and take the race, from obsurity to history, just like Mr. Dale Jarrett!!!!

Joe
02/15/2007 08:55 PM
permalink

And it wasn’t Burton who finished 2nd in 1998 – it was Bobby Labonte.

Dave
02/16/2007 01:11 AM
permalink

I was looking for Matt on the web and thats how I found FS. Really great site. I have been a fan of Matt for about six or seven years. One of the most entertaining writers I have ever read. I plan on checking out all the writers on your site. I have been a Nascar fan since late 60’s when I was a kid. Matt’s writing on Nascar is not only entertaining but very informative. Very few writers or media people covering Nascar will criticize or challenge them on important issues. Nobody wants to mess up the money bandwagon. Matt may make a mistake on something that does not matter anyway but on the larger picture of how Nascar runs things or on past traditions of the sport and how Nascar is throwing that away for nothing but greed. Matts writing reflects what regular stock car fans feel and think about the sport. That is rare in this sport. Good Luck Matt