The Frontstretch: Bubble Breakdown : Mad Martinsville Scramble Leaves McMurray, Smith Back In Top 35 by Mike Ravesi -- Monday March 31, 2008

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And so it begins. With NASCAR switching to the 2008 owner points at Martinsville, the quest for a guaranteed Top 35 spot became a mad scramble at the back end of the point standings. When the season began at Daytona, the Top 35 were locked in for the first five races; that meant mistakes like slipping in the rain at California could be made up for with several weeks of solid performances. Now, as the guaranteed spots shift to 2008 owner points, a mistake this week could have you on the outside looking in for the next event … and beyond.

That’s where outside of the Top 35 becomes a slippery downhill slope for these teams. A missed race here, a miss there, then a rained out qualifying session, and suddenly, you're a few hundred points behind with no hope to catch up. The pressure to make the races week to week becomes intense; and if you don't get back into the Top 35 by Miami, it may be tough getting sponsorship for the following season, continuing a downward spiral which can only cripple a team. But don't take my word for it; just ask the boys over at Morgan-McClure Motorsports. Despite having a solid driver in Ward Burton and a team history of winning, not being in the Top 35 meant they couldn't secure enough sponsorship dollars to run the 2008 season; and now, they’re sitting dormant in their Virginia home.

For those who haven't heard, this week NASCAR denied Michael Waltrip Racing's request to swap owner points between the No. 00 and the No. 44. This means that after 41 races, David Reutimann finally got himself solidly up in owner points, only to have his team owner drop him back to 34th. John Darby, Sprint Cup series director stated that, "Point swaps are typically granted only when there's a change in business function, or when an owner is trying to reorganize during the offseason. This was never meant to be used to give a driver the best position he can get." With this ruling, we can assume there would also be no point swapping allowed at Roush Fenway Racing between the No. 17 and No. 26, or at Petty Enterprises between the No. 45 and the No. 43. But would some of those teams even be needing to consider that type of swap after this weekend? Without further ado, let’s take a look at who this week’s Winners and Losers are after the Goody's Cool Orange 500.

Biggest Winners

By far, the biggest winner this week was Jamie McMurray in the No. 26 Ford Fusion, who raced his way well up into the Top 35 in owner points by virtue of his first Top 10 of the season. McMurray, whose team was the biggest surprise of those who were outside the Top 35, duplicated his 2007 success at this race by qualifying 5th and finishing in the 8th position. That moved McMurray’s car up five spots in the standings; it now sits him in the 31st spot in owners points, thus locking him into the field next week at Texas.

Another driver to race his way into the Top 35 was Regan Smith. After a miserable start to his rookie season, Regan opened a lot of eyes by posting a career best finish of 14th at the Goody's Cool Orange 500. Regan was steady if unspectacular, and used good pit strategy along with some luck to avoid the 18 cautions that waved at Martinsville. With that finish, he moves into the 35th and final guaranteed starting spot in next week’s Samsung 500, locking all four DEI cars in the starting field.

Those DEI cars will join the four Hendrick entries, as Casey Mears put some breathing room between the No. 5 team and the bubble. Coming into the weekend, that program was only 12 points ahead of the 35th place car; but on a track where he’s historically not been strong, Mears got it together at the best possible time. Piloting his Kellogg’s / CARQUEST Chevrolet to his first Top 10 finish of the season, Mears moved up 6 spots in owner points and increased his cushion to a much more comfortable 76. One can only imagine the sighs of relief coming from that No. 5 car, as the pressure to keep up with their Hendrick teammates eases a little with their 7th place finish.

Biggest Losers

One can only wonder how long it'll take for the novelty that is Sam Hornish, Jr. to wear off at Team Penske. After the open wheel convert failed to make five of seven races in 2007, team owner Roger Penske swapped points between the No. 2 and No. 77 programs, thus locking Hornish into the Top 35 for the first five races of the season. At the time, Penske called it “a good business decision;” but perhaps a better business decision would have been to swap Hornish for another driver. After being involved in several cautions this past week, Hornish is now out of the Top 35 and must qualify on time at a track where he hasn’t competed in a Cup car. That’s got to have the Defiance, Ohio native undergoing a lot of sleepless nights in the coming days.

Likable sophomore David Reutimann just can't seem to catch a break. He qualifies on time for the first five events, and races his way into the Top 35 with his old No. 00. Then, Reutimann moves into the No. 44, which is right on the bubble, only to have the rear end gear burn up with less than 25 laps to go. Now, after a 39th place finish in his first race with his new team, he sits back in 37th place in owner points, once again having to race his way into the starting field with the UPS Toyota.

After being involved in a pair of wrecks, and seeming to wage his own personal demolition derby with Aric Almirola, Michael Waltrip fell three spots to 33rd in the owner standings at Martinsville. This leaves him only 22 points ahead of the 35th place team heading to a track he does not have a strong history at; Waltrip will need to put it together this weekend, or face the consequences.

A Look Ahead

Things look good again for Jamie McMurray next week in Texas. Last year, he posted 2 Top 10s in the Lone Star State, and with Roush Fenway Racing getting stronger each race, I like him to post at least a Top 15, if not a Top 10 next Sunday. Expect a strong run to also be put in by fellow bubbler Dave Blaney, who tends to excel on mile-and-a-half intermediate speedways.

However, things do not look good for Kyle Petty, David Reutimann, and Joe Nemechek. Petty is going to have to qualify on time, and finished 42nd and 35th in the two races there last year … not exactly a confidence builder for the Petty Enterprises squad. Reutimann hasn’t done much better; he failed to qualify for the first race he entered at Texas, and lost an engine just 90 laps into the second, relegating him to a 43rd place finish. Finally, Nemechek has struggled, too, having qualified and finished 35th with the Barney Visser-owned No. 78 team in November. He'll need to improve on that if he wants to make the show again this year, and I just don't see it happening.

When the dust settles down South, look for the No. 22 Caterpillar Toyota of Bill Davis Racing to sneak its way up into the Top 35 after Texas; while Michael Waltrip, who failed to qualify for both Texas races last year, should fall out of the Top 35.

Breaking Down the Bubble

Pos Owner Car # Driver Points Points +/- of 35th Place
31 Roush Fenway Racing 26 Jamie McMurray 494 +56
32 Hall of Fame Racing 96 J.J. Yeley 468 +30
33 Michael Waltrip Racing 55 Michael Waltrip 460 +22
34 Haas CNC Racing 70 Jeremy Mayfield 441 +3
35 Dale Earnhardt, Inc. ‘01 Regan Smith 438 0
36 Penske Racing 77 Sam Hornish, Jr. 435 -3
37 Michael Waltrip Racing 44 David Reutimann 418 -20
38 Chip Ganassi Racing 40 Dario Franchitti 416 -22
39 Bill Davis Racing 22 Dave Blaney 373 -65
40 Petty Enterprises 45 Kyle Petty 327 -111
41 Team Red Bull 84 Mike Skinner 288 -150
42 BAM Racing 49 Ken Schrader 276 -162
43 Furniture Row Racing 78 Joe Nemechek 264 -174
44 Wood Brothers 21 Bill Elliott 255 -183
45 Gillett Evernham Motorsports 10 Patrick Carpentier 246 -192
46 Front Row Motorsports 34 John Andretti 206 -232

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hank lee
03/31/2008 02:44 AM
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Hey man, Reutimann didn’t fail to qualify last year, it rained on Friday keeping him out of the show. He was fast in practice at Texas last year. But he just can’t seem to catch a break, it seems.

Johnboy60
03/31/2008 09:41 AM
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Who care!! The “top 35” is a joke!!……run the Fastest 42 cars!

Kevin in SoCal
03/31/2008 12:52 PM
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Can you handle it if your favorite driver spins out or breaks during qualifying and misses the show? I know I’d be upset. I would rather see the fastest 40, then 41 and 42 are provisionals based on owner points, and 43 is the past champ’s provisional, or another owner’s points provisional. If 41-43 are not taken by provisionals, they go to the next fastest cars.

hank lee
03/31/2008 01:48 PM
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as a david reutimann and Dale Jarrett fan, last year was extremely tough. A lot of DNQ’s, but hey I still tuned in every friday with high hopes and this week will be no different

Steve Cloyd
03/31/2008 03:07 PM
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“Can you handle it if your favorite driver spins out or breaks during qualifying and misses the show?”

Yes. It’s a race, not a dog and pony show.

Craig Rebeor
03/31/2008 06:18 PM
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“Hey man, Reutimann didn’t fail to qualify last year, it rained on Friday keeping him out of the show.” is a long way of saying he didn’t qualify…

hank lee
03/31/2008 07:11 PM
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the way the article words it, it’s saying he failed to qualify on speed. not hardly the case

Craig Rebeor
03/31/2008 08:25 PM
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Well that is the truth, he didn’t fail to qualify on speed. Rain or no rain, he still didn’t qualify for the race. Now his team owner has screwed him over and if it rains in Texas Friday, he won’t qualify again.

Kevin in SoCal
03/31/2008 09:56 PM
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Why wouldnt Reutimann make the show, Craig? He’s 37th in owner points, well within the 43 they start the race with.

Ryan K
04/01/2008 11:22 AM
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Why wouldnt Reutimann make the show, Craig? He’s 37th in owner points, well within the 43 they start the race with.

If you pay attention at all the rules say that only the TOP 35 are guaranteed spots in the race

Kevin in SoCal
04/01/2008 10:50 PM
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Ryan, we’re talking about if it rains. Craig said if it rains Reutimann wouldnt be in the race, which is not true.

Craig Rebeor
04/02/2008 07:39 AM
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Oops. Thanks for pointing that out Kevin. You are correct, if it rains, he is in. If it doesn’t rain he has to make it on time. Which is how his owner (M. Waltrip) has screwed him.