The Frontstretch: The Bubble Breakdown: Blaney Rides Momentum into the Top 35 by Mike Ravesi -- Monday May 12, 2008

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The Bubble Breakdown: Blaney Rides Momentum into the Top 35

Tracking Sprint Cup Owner Points · Mike Ravesi · Monday May 12, 2008

 

NASCAR’S Sprint Cup teams raced under the lights Saturday night at one of the crown jewel of the series: Darlington Raceway. The track labeled as “Too Tough to Tame” looked quite timid during qualifying for several of the bubble teams as five drivers managed to qualify their cars in the Top 18 during Friday evening’s qualifying session. But Saturday night, the Lady in Black showed her true self, as only two of those bubble teams were able to manage Top 20 finishes, and left us wondering why the others even bothered to paint the right sides of their cars. As the checkered flag waved, one team raced its way into the Top 35, one wrecked its way out, and the rest were just happy to get out in one piece. With that, here’s your break down of the bubble teams this week for the Dodge Challenger 500.

Biggest Winners:

Apparently missing Talladega may not have been such a bad thing. Since missing the Aarons 499, Dave Blaney finished 18th at Richmond and a season’s best ninth at Darlington. Not since Ward Burton put Bill Davis’s No.22 Caterpillar machine in victory lane twice at Darlington has that team looked this good at the Lady in Black. Blaney qualified the car in the 13th position, ran in the Top 15 all night, got great pit stops from his Caterpillar team, kept it off the wall, and brought home a rare Top 10 finish for BDR. For their efforts, the team is rewarded by getting the car back into the Top 35 in owner’s points, (35th) thus having one of the coveted guaranteed starting spots heading into the Coca Cola 600 in two weeks at Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

Missing the race at Talladega could have ruined Dave Blaney’s season. Instead, Blaney and the No. 22 have used it as a wakeup call to finish better; including a season best ninth at Darlington.

David Reutimann continues to show improvement in NASCAR’s top series, posting a 19th place finish in a race that got the better of a lot of drivers. While his 30th place qualifying run was rather unspectacular, the Florida native improved upon his 33rd place finish in this event last year. The solid run moves the No. 44 car up one spot in car owner points to 31st place and builds his cushion to 49 points over the No. 22 BDR Caterpillar Toyota, which currently sits on the bubble. If the car continues to stay in one piece for the duration of the races, I think we’ll see young David continue to distance himself from the bubble.

Normally, a 28th place finish, three laps down to the leader wouldn’t qualify you as one of my big winners, but to be honest, this week this pickin’s are a little slim. So Michael McDowell rounds out this week’s winners. To McDowell’s credit, he did qualify the double zero car in the 18th position. He was also the highest finishing rookie in the race. Most importantly, he put a little more distance between himself and the bubble position. While Michael McDowell, the driver sits 43rd in driver points, the Michael Waltrip Racing team he drives for moves up one spot to 30th in owner’s points; and when it comes time to qualify, the owner’s standings are the only ones that matter.

Biggest Losers:

For the first time this year, Gene Haas won’t be able to point to the television and brag to all the other guys on his cell block that he owns one of the cars on television. While Johnny Sauter turned a lap at 174.789, a full mile than hour faster than Ward Burton’s track record, it wasn’t good enough to make the field of 43. The No. 70 Haas Automation Chevrolet falls two spots to 39th in owner’s points, 145 markers behind the 35th position, a position that is beginning to look more and more unattainable with each poor showing by the No. 70 team.

Sam Hornish Jr. now joins his fellow rookie open wheelers outside the Top 35 in the owner’s standings. Roger Penske’s No. 77 car smacked the wall hard on lap 11 and had to go to the garage for repairs. The Mobil 1 Dodge did return to action, but 86 laps down to the leader. By the time the race mercifully ended for the Penske boys, Hornish was 97 laps down, mired in 38th position. The dismal showing drops the team from 35th to 36th in the owner’s standings, 18 points behind the last guaranteed spot. One can only imagine, with the team performing as poorly as it is, that Hornish must wondering why he was struggling in Darlington instead of running for the pole at Indy.

Roger Penske wasn’t the only NASCAR owner getting bad news at Indy on Saturday night. The Chip Ganassi-owned No. 41 Dodge came back to earth at Darlington, qualifying a miserable 39th and finishing 32nd. The crew chief swap certainly hasn’t brought consistency to the No. 41 Target Dodge driven by Reed Sorenson, who’s posted finishes of 43rd, 12th, and 32nd since the swap. After the Dodge Challenger 500, the Ganassi team drops ever closer to the bubble, now sitting in the 32nd spot, 48 points ahead of the bubble. The good news for Roger Penske and Chip Ganassi is, at least they’re not Gene Haas.

A Look Ahead:

The Coca Cola 600 is a tough one to make predictions for. Some late race shenanigans last year led to a Top five finishing order of Casey Mears, J.J. Yeley, Kyle Petty, Reed Sorenson, and Brian Vickers, and I guarantee you nobody called that before the race. But we’re gonna give it a shot anyways. I like momentum, and right now Dave Blaney has it. He’s posted his two best finishes of the year the last two races. Last year he started eighth and finished 18th in the 600. Combined with his career average finish of 24th on intermediate tracks and I like him to finish Top 20 and keep BDR’s hold on the 35th spot.

J.J. Yeley doesn’t have momentum, but I like him anyway, mainly because I also like history. In 2007, Yeley started 12th and finished second, and in 2006 he started fourth and finished 20th. Going with the history, I also like Reed Sorenson. In the last two 600’s he hasn’t qualified well but finished fourth and tenth, and he’s still got a guaranteed starting spot. The crystal ball says Top 25 runs by both Reed and J.J.

On the flip side, Michael Waltrip has neither momentum nor history on his side at Lowe’s. He missed the race in ’07 and started 43rd in ’06, not finishing much better, bringing it home in 41st position. I see him maybe cracking the Top 35, but definitely not the Top 30. After the Coca-Cola 600, Kyle Petty begins his seven-race summer hiatus, with Terry Labonte stepping in for five races and Chad McCumbee getting the other two. I’m thinking neither the focus, nor the horsepower will be there to get him in the show. So there’s your bubble breakdown for this week, we’ll see you in two weeks after the Coca Cola 600. Until then, so long from the bubble…

Breaking Down the Bubble

Pos Owner Car # Driver Points Points +/- of 35th Place
31 Michael Waltrip Racing 44 David Reutimann 873 +49
32 Chip Ganassi Racing 41 Reed Sorenson 872 +48
33 Michael Waltrip Racing 55 Michael Waltrip 851 +27
34 Dale Earnhardt, Inc. 01 Regan Smith 835 +11
35 Bill Davis Racing 22 Dave Blaney 824 0
36 Penske Racing 77 Sam Hornish, Jr. 806 -18
37 Hall of Fame Racing 96 J.J. Yeley 730 -94
38 Chip Ganassi Racing 40 Sterling Marlin / Dario Franchitti 690 -134
39 Haas CNC Racing 70 Johnny Sauter / Ken Schrader 679 -145
40 Team Red Bull 84 A.J. Allmendinger 654 -170
41 Furniture Row Racing 78 Joe Nemechek 593 -231
42 Petty Enterprises 45 Kyle Petty 575 -249
43 Gillett Evernham Motorsports 10 Patrick Carpentier 541 -283
44 Wood Brothers 21 Various Drivers 536 -288
45 Front Row Motorsports 34 Jeff Green 355 -469

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Travis Rassat
05/12/2008 11:04 AM
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I am happy to see Dave Blaney making some progress. As an Outlaws fan, he’s always been a sentimental favorite. Unfortunately, guys like Blaney and J.J. Yeley just can’t seem to translate their open wheel success to NASCAR like I thought they would. It was fun to see him running up in the top 5 Saturday night for a while!

I don’t think Kyle Petty will make the 600, either. It’ll be interesting to see how Terry Labonte does in the 45. That team needs a big boost, and it’ll be interesting to see how he does in that equipment. Having the Past Champion’s provisional certainly doesn’t hurt, especially since he’ll be the only one out of the top 35 who has it. They’ve got a good opportunity with Terry Labonte and Chad McCumbee, so I hope they continue to run with it.

Kevin in SoCal
05/12/2008 12:41 PM
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Terry Labonte isnt the only champion out of the top 35. Remember Bill Elliot in the #21? The Wood Brothers and Bill will have to work 36-hour days again the next six weeks because Labonte has the first use of the provisional.

Travis Rassat
05/12/2008 01:37 PM
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Thanks for pointing that out, Kevin – how could I forget Awesome Bill? Duh!

hank lee
05/12/2008 11:32 PM
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man, I’m a reutimann fan and it bites fighting this battle again. NASCAR’s rule changes are so awful, I mean they won’t let you change mid season but I’m pretty sure the 15 took someone’s points last year. Ah well, just stinks

Junkyard Jan
05/13/2008 12:09 AM
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The funny part few realize is the irony in that Dave’s dad Lou and David’s dad Buzzie were two of the best there’ve ever been in the DIRT modifieds. Both are enshired in DIRT’s Hall of Fame in Weedsport, NY.

Kevin in SoCal
05/13/2008 03:15 AM
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Hank Lee, yes the 15 took the 13’s points last year (or was it the 14’s points?) because DEI bought out Ginn Racing. That’s allowed by NASCAR’s rules. But this year, NASCAR didnt want to start allowing teams to swap owner’s points at random, so they put a stop to it.

hank lee
05/13/2008 11:44 AM
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but that’s just as unfair as Penske swapping the 2 and 77’s points to utilize the past champs provisional