The Frontstretch: Bubble Breakdown: Michael Waltrip Wrecks, But It's Haas CNC Crashing Out Of Top 35 by Mike Ravesi -- Monday June 16, 2008

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Bubble Breakdown: Michael Waltrip Wrecks, But It's Haas CNC Crashing Out Of Top 35

Tracking Sprint Cup Car Owner Points · Mike Ravesi · Monday June 16, 2008

 

Rain on Friday afternoon washed out NASCAR qualifying at Michigan International Raceway, meaning the starting grid was set by owner points — leaving the No. 70 Haas Automation Chevrolet and the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Chevy as the odd teams out. But while the teams on the bubble breathed a sigh of relief, their calm was short-lived, as they now had to deal with starting the race in the back of the field in a car that has been highly criticized for not running well in traffic.

So, which teams towards the back of the field were able to navigate their way to the front? See for yourself as we break down the hunt for the Top 35 in this week’s Bubble Breakdown for the Lifelock 400 at Michigan International Raceway.

Biggest Winners:

Michael Waltrip Racing tops our list of winners this week. Waltrip was able to race his way back into the Top 35 in the owner’s standings on the strength of a 24th place finish Sunday — even despite a last lap crash that ended the race under yellow. His No. 55 NAPA Toyota holds down the 34th spot in the rankings, but is just seven points ahead of Haas CNC’s No. 66 team, who sits in 36th.

Michael Waltrip doesn’t have to close his eyes and make a wish that he qualifies next week at Sonoma. Thanks to his finish at Michigan, he’s safe…for now.

Despite causing the race’s final caution with three laps to go after his loose race car got the better of him, Sam Hornish, Jr. finished a respectable 22nd Sunday afternoon. The finish doesn’t show how well the team was running, as Hornish led the race at one point during the second half of the event. With the team’s effort, the No. 77 Penske Dodge moves up a pair of spots to 33rd in owner points. More importantly, they now have a cushion of 28 points over 36th place.

Team Red Bull rounds out this week’s list of biggest winners this week. A.J. Allmendinger grabbed his second straight Top 20 finish, bringing his No. 84 Red Bull Toyota home in 19th position. For the second straight week, the No. 84 team posted the best finish of all the bubble teams; and while they’re not yet in the Top 35, they’ve narrowed the gap to just 110 points. A.J. and Team Red Bull head to Sonoma with some momentum, which they will need to maintain if they’re to continue to chip away at the margin between qualifying on time and having a guaranteed spot.

Biggest Losers:

With a 33rd place finish, The No. 66 State Water Heaters Chevy falls out of the Top 35 for the second time this season. The effort ends another tough week for Haas CNC Racing, whose appeal of NASCAR’s penalty for a rear wing infraction was denied. With a career average starting position of 29th at road courses, things don’t look to get a whole lot easier next week for Scott Riggs and his struggling race team.

I’d like to take this opportunity to welcome Robby Gordon to the bubble. After hitting the wall Sunday, Gordon finished a dismal 40th. For Robby, it was his fourth finish of 33rd or worse in his last five races, causing the driver — who is also the team’s owner — to slips to 31st in owner points with the No. 7 Dodge. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel for this team as next week NASCAR travels to wine country in California for a road course date that has been very good to Gordon over the course of his career.

Michael Waltrip Racing’s Michael McDowell has now fallen to the bubble. Young Michael could only muster a 37th place finish, five laps down to the leader at Michigan last Sunday. The double zero Toyota’s margin of error is now gone as the team is only seven points ahead of the guaranteed starting spot cutoff. With Infineon Raceway looming next on the schedule, Mr. McDowell’s best hope may be for Riggs to not qualify and therefore distancing himself from the teams on the outside looking in.

A Look Ahead:

NASCAR hits the road course in Sonoma, California next week, meaning not only do the bubble teams have to deal with each other in qualifying, they also have to deal with influx of road course ringers that attempt to qualify for the two road races NASCAR runs each year. As of this writing, Ron Fellows has been tabbed to drive the DEI No. 01 Chevy, and Max Papis is slated to drive the No. 70 HAAS Automation Chevrolet. Also attempting to qualify will be road course specialist Boris Said, who you know will qualify his No Fear No. 60 Ford. Throw in Terry Labonte and his past champion’s provisional in the Petty Enterprises No. 45 Dodge and the pickins’ start getting slim for starting spots. So who gets in you ask?

Michael Waltrip, surprisingly, has a higher average finish at road courses than at superspeedways for his career. His average starting spot at the big tracks is also only one position better than at the road courses. So, I like Mikey to qualify around 25th and finish in the Top 15. Robby Gordon is an outstanding road course driver, and this race couldn’t have come at a better time. I’ll be a little bold here and say Robby sits on the front row and finishes Top 5, as he has ten Top 10s in 19 career road course events. As far as those who are going to struggle, Marcos Ambrose will attempt to qualify the Wood Brothers No. 21 Motorcraft Ford — but won’t make it. The team has struggled all year and has made several races simply based on Bill Elliott’s Past Champions Provisional, a luxury Ambrose does not have. The Haas CNC Racing’s struggles will also continue, as Scott Riggs won’t be able to qualify the No. 66 State Water Heaters Chevy. That team struggled last year qualifying 31st and finishing 42nd at Infineon. Add the fact that Riggs career average starting spot for road courses is 29th and you don’t get a real good feeling for the team’s chances out West.

That’s it for this week. So until next Monday, so long from the bubble.

Breaking Down the Bubble

Pos Owner Car # Driver Points Points +/- of 35th Place
31 Robby Gordon 7 Robby Gordon 1,184 +27
32 Chip Ganassi Racing 41 Reed Sorenson 1,179 +22
33 Penske Racing 77 Sam Hornish, Jr. 1,178 +21
34 Michael Waltrip Racing 55 Michael Waltrip 1,163 +6
35 Michael Waltrip Racing 00 Michael McDowell 1,157 0
36 Haas CNC Racing 66 Scott Riggs 1,150 -7
37 Team Red Bull 84 A.J. Allmendinger 1,047 -110
38 Hall Of Fame Racing 96 J.J. Yeley 941 -216
39 Chip Ganassi Racing 40 Dario Franchitti 922 -235
40 Furniture Row Racing 78 Joe Nemechek 831 -326
41 Gillett Evernham Motorsports 10 Patrick Carpentier 827 -330
42 Petty Enterprises 45 Chad McCumbee / Terry Labonte 807 -350
43 Wood Brothers 21 Various Drivers 750 -407
44 Haas CNC Racing 70 Jason Leffler 692 -465
45 Front Row Motorsports 34 Tony Raines 457 -700

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Mike In NH
06/16/2008 08:04 AM
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I hope the ‘Dinger gets his car into the Top 35 this season. He’s been abused a bit by RBR – they wouldn’t listen to his complaints about his car until they brought in Mike Skinner, who gave them the same complaints – and they haven’t been putting him in a Truck or Nationwide ride to sharpen his skills each week – but he’s really been on a run the last few weeks. If he does get the car into the 35, I expect RBR to go to three teams with Scott Speed added next year. Add in Vickers doing well now and things are really looking up for RBR.

Travis Rassat
06/16/2008 10:18 AM
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I’d also like to see the ‘Dinger get into the top 35. Not only am I an Allmendinger fan, but I also have been rooting for RBR as my favorite underdog team. They have really improved this year.

One interesting aspect of the top 35 bubble this year is the lower car counts – I think the start of the season sent home 5 to 6 cars per race, but now we’re down to only 1 or 2 missing the race each week. Did anybody notice that the truck race on Friday only had 34 entries?

It’ll be interesting to see how Marcos Ambrose does this weekend. With his background, he can obviously do well, but will he have the equipment?

Mike H
06/16/2008 07:10 PM
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Unless Jayski has the entry list wrong, Max Papis is in the#66 & Riggs in #70. That WILL put the #66 in & a decent finish may put waltrip back where he belongs. Where is the constant whining about a penalty we heard last yr?

FSBryan
06/16/2008 07:51 PM
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Mike in NH

The only thing I would say about Allmendinger and the 3 car plan is that Red Bull vehemently denied that they would do that unless they could find a full-time sponsor other than Red Bull. They didn’t think it made good business sense to sponsor 3 cars in the field. That makes it difficult for Dinger, because if things keep going the way they are he may find himself fighting with Scott Speed for the second Red Bull sponsorship. And, as good as Dinger is, Speed will likely have an ARCA Re/Max title, several truck wins and more importantly the Red Bull Driver Challenge title on his resume. That’s going to be a competitive stable at year’s end.

mike in upstate NY
06/16/2008 08:28 PM
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According to Jayski team page for No.70 Haas papis was signed to drive the 70 car on 4/23/08 for both road courses but now the entry list has him in the 66 car. My guess is they swapped cars because a decent finish gets the 66 back in the top 35 while even a win wouldn’t get the 70 into top 35.

Rusty Shackelford
06/17/2008 11:15 AM
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Smart move on the part of HAAS CNC to switch drivers. Scott Riggs is one of my favorite drivers, but the man is not that good on road courses. Barring a wreck or mechanical issues, Max Papis should be able to get the 66 safely in the field and bring home a decent enough finish to get back into the Top 35, or to at least keep the 66 within striking distance. If Riggs can make the race with the 70 car, it’s a bonus. I would hate to see him not racing on Sunday, but there is the bigger picture to consider.

mike in upstate NY
06/17/2008 06:08 PM
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I thought it was a smart move until i did a little digging. Papis has never, that i could find, qualify for a cup race. He’s got a few busch series starts but thats it. With such a small entry list, I’m betting that riggs could have gotten himself in.