The Frontstretch: No Bull: What Constitutes Bad NASCAR Attendance? How Capacity Changes Perception by Nick Bromberg -- Tuesday October 5, 2010

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The estimated attendance for the Sprint Cup race at Kansas Speedway Sunday was 100,000, and as we all know, those official estimations tend to be on the very high side of the scale.

The grandstands at Kansas Speedway seat approximately 82,000 and to this person’s untrained eye, looked about 75 to 80 percent full. At the high end of the spectrum, that means that there were approximately 66,000 people in the stands.

So for the official estimation to be correct, that would mean that there were 34,000 people spread throughout the infield. Um… No. I’m not convinced that 34,000 people could line up shoulder to shoulder in the RV lot in the infield at the Speedway and fit.

Maybe the stands at Kansas looked pretty full…but we doubt 100,000 people sat in them.

But no matter the real number, the crowd at Kansas Speedway looked very good by 2010 NASCAR standards. And honestly, it had to. The track was going to get a second Cup race no matter what because the state approved the ISC-supported plans for a casino to be built just off of Turn 2. Of course, that alone doesn’t cosmetically justify a second date. The grandstands on Sunday had to look like they were relatively full to ensure it looked like Kansas deserved its long-awaited expansion, and that was accomplished.

However, that may have more to do with the smart planning by the folks at Kansas Speedway than anything else. In the first few years of the track’s existence, demand outweighed supply, and sellouts were the norm. Now, even with the elimination of mandatory season ticket packages, the supply heavily outweighs the demand, especially during non-Cup events. But that’s the norm everywhere, isn’t it?

Here’s one important difference: how they handled it. Kansas could have had a knee-jerk response to that boom and overbuilt to put more butts in the seats those years, a profit-hungry mentality most facilities jumped on during the same time period. That would have generated more revenue for the track in the short term, certainly, but how would those grandstands have looked Sunday if capacity was 100,000 or over?

The estimated attendance at the previous race at Dover was 88,000. Now that, too, was probably an overestimation, but that supposed 88,000 looked like 10,000 given Dover’s listed capacity of 140,000 seats.

Major League Baseball just announced their highest attendance numbers in years, but that’s an anomaly. The NFL and NASCAR are both suffering — the latter more than the former — because, quite frankly, the competition experience is much better on television. Sure, you can’t inhale the fumes of the gas or smell the rubber from your couch, but you sure as hell know what’s going on more than someone in the grandstands does. (Unless that person shelled out extra money for a scanner or FanView)

Should we really be blaming the fans and the hotels that price gouge on race weekends, though? Shouldn’t some of the blame of the empty stand phenomenon be spread to the track owners and operators who overbuilt to fill what they saw as a permanent increase in popularity?

Let’s be honest, assuming a lasting demand in any sport is absurdly foolish. Yes, at one time, every one of Dover’s 140,000 seats were filled, but at this point, the NASCAR boom can almost be compared to the tech bubble of the 1990’s.

During the summer, people inside and out of the sport were pointing to Iowa Speedway as a beacon of attendance in these rough times. You want to know what Iowa’s capacity is? 30,000. Yes, the track ships in temporary seating for race weekends, but that doesn’t come close to doubling that number. Kansas Speedway probably drew more than Iowa did for its Nationwide race Saturday. Kansas looked empty. Iowa looked like it was bursting at the seams.

In anticipation of next year’s Sprint Cup date, Speedway Motorsports, Inc. chairman Bruton Smith is expanding the capacity at Kentucky Motor Speedway. The current capacity is a modest 66,000, yet Smith has plans to expand that to 116,000. I’m afraid that “absurdly foolish” quote may fit here.

Kentucky Motor Speedway is approximately 2.5 hours from Indianapolis Motor Speedway, about five hours from Michigan International Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway. Combined, those four tracks are going to host five races over a 10-week summer span in 2011. This year’s Bristol night race didn’t sell out. Do you really think that any of those races will next year, especially with Kentucky’s extravagant new addition?

Hey Bruton, I know you won’t follow my advice, but why don’t you make smaller expansions over the next few years? Isn’t a near-capacity crowd of 80,000 going to look better than the same attendance spread out over 116,000 seats?

Contact Nick Bromberg

Tuesday on the Frontstretch:
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5 Points to Ponder: The Franchise Gets Rowdy, The Rookie Kiss Of Death, and Start The Damned Race at Noon
Desperate Times Call ‘4’ Desperate Measures: The 4-Car Rule Needs To Go
Talking NASCAR TV: Did ESPN Recover At Kansas? And VERSUS’ On-Air Implosion
Who’s Hot / Who’s Not In NASCAR: Kansas-Fontana Edition

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Jacob
10/05/2010 08:49 AM
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Nick, what you say is very true. While NA$CAR’s decline is clearly a well oiled machine working up to a full head of steam, the grandstand capacity does make the problem look worse than it actually is. At least sort-of.
The fact that there was a time when the same 140,000 Dover seats were not enough is the problem. If Matt’s (and other column and posts are to be believed) the consistent number for race attendance is somewhere between 50-66% capacity. That’s a HUGE loss of revenue. And correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t SMI and ISC publicly traded companies? That means shareholders that must be satisfied. Their satisfaction is ENTIRELY profit driven.
That’s still a lot of attendees, and while I am one of the most vocal posters on the threat of NA$CAR’s potential bankruptcy; the truth it that it is years and probably over a decade away.
It will be years before IndyCar even eclipses NA$CAR as the most popular auto racing series in America. Will they accomplish it? Time will tell, but it seems like that is NA$CAR’s plan.

Gordon82Wins
10/05/2010 10:23 AM
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Not to mention that a perfectly good short track could be built with a capacity of 70,000, and the racing would be more exciting and the stands would be more likely full.

Colin Baird
10/05/2010 04:35 PM
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Nick; There are many things that contribute to the decrease in interest in NA$CAR. First of all, NASCAR continues to shoot itself in the foot by being consistantly partial to certain teams and drivers. NASCAR does not help its cause with the inconsistancy of its applications of the rule book. The CHASE itself, and the insanity of the top 35 cars being locked into the race has caused fans to lose interest. There is one main factor that I can see, that has contributed to the vast decline in spectator interest in NASCAR. When Dale Jr. was driving for DEI and always running in the top 10, and most times the top 5, the seats at the tracks were full and a lot more fans watched the races on TV. Now that ‘Junior’ runs in the middle of the pack and seldom wins, millions of fans have lost interest in the sport. Go back a couple of years and put ‘Junior’ back in the red Budweiser, number 8 Chevy, and have him run up front and win races, then see what happens. By the way, I’m not a Dale Jr. fan, but I’ve been watching NASCAR races since 1953, and I know what sells seats and garners interest in stock car racing. Watching the boys with the 10 foot wide egoes that are driving in the Chase, just doesn’t get the job done. Racing is a mans sport, but todays NASCAR is loaded with a bunch of snot nosed kids save for Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, ‘Junior’ and a couple of others. Real racefans want racing to be like it was before Dale Sr. was killed. The kiddies winning races today couldn’t come close to competing with Richard Petty and the drivers of his day. Today NASCAR is simply not interesting. Case closed.

Richard Witherell
10/05/2010 06:24 PM
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If nascar attendance drop is because the tv coverage is a better experience why is tv viewership tanking also? The racing is terrible and the tv coverage is 30% commercials. Nascar is a sinking ship and they are drilling holes in the bottom of the boat to let the water out.

Dave B
10/05/2010 10:42 PM
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You must be blind because the stands at Kansas were way more then 75-80 percent full. There were a few empty seats but not nearly that many

Steve
10/06/2010 11:49 AM
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If Dale Jr not being successful is the reason Nascar is losing fans, then most of Nascar fans are casual fans. You know, those that head for the exits when Jr drops out of a race early. Are these really the fans that we want anyway? It probably is now, since Nascar has ticked off the die hard racing fans by trying to cater to the casual ADD fans, so now both types of fans are gone.

Shoeman
10/06/2010 01:05 PM
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What we need in NASCAR are more short tracks. You know the kind that has plenty of racing action. The kind that is never boring. The kind you look forward to going back to next year. The kind that pack the stands year after year.