The Frontstretch: Jeff Gordon vs Matt Kenseth : The Razor-Thin Line Between Chase Success...And Lack Thereof by Thomas Bowles -- Sunday October 14, 2007

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Jeff Gordon vs Matt Kenseth : The Razor-Thin Line Between Chase Success...And Lack Thereof

Bowles-Eye View · Thomas Bowles · Sunday October 14, 2007


They say racing can boil down to a matter of inches. But in what’s become a wacky Chase, "inches" can simply be replaced by "finishing."

Just take a look at Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth. One is spending this Monday morning relishing the glory of a title clearly within their grasp; the other is shaking his head at a championship bid gone painfully sour. Without question, their two Chases couldn't be more different…or could they?

A quick look at the standings appears to concede just how opposite the two men's experiences have been on paper. Gordon is currently holding onto the top spot, leading second-place Jimmie Johnson by 68 in his now six-year quest for title number five. Far behind those two on the mountain looms Kenseth, still looking for a place to climb up behind them. In fact, he's bringing up the rear of the '07 Chase, 442 points behind in 12th and already focused on looking ahead to 2008.

Yet, looking at certain stats makes you realize just how close Kenseth was to concentrating on 2007. The driver of the No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford has led 273 laps in the last five events, second-best among all drivers vying for this year's title trophy. In contrast, Gordon's led just 79 circuits, even though he's the only man to win twice during the playoffs. Still, both men have led in three of five Chase races so far, and each one has, at one time or another, fought through their fair share of adversity.

The difference is, racing luck gave Gordon all the opportunities he needed to recover.

Both men began the Chase showcasing their strength, as Gordon finished 2nd and Kenseth 7th at the tricky track up at Loudon. It was at Dover that their paths started to diverge in completely different directions. All day long at the Monster Mile, Gordon's car appeared ready for the junk heap - falling one lap off the pace, he could only watch as Kenseth's Ford blew by en route to leading a race-high 192 of the first 374 laps of the race.

But Kenseth's car wouldn't be around for lap 375. In an instant, his engine was toast and Gordon was coasting home, relishing an opportunity to bring his car to the line 11th in what turned out to be an attrition-filled demolition derby.

"It's kind of a shame," said Kenseth. "We were in a good spot to win the race, and we were in a good spot to gain some points for the championship (on Gordon). It just wasn't to be today."

"We just came up short."

"It was effective because we survived," countered Gordon. "We fought through to a decent finish and somehow, we’ve come out of it with the points lead.”

How telling those words would be.

Fast forward to Kansas. Again, Kenseth proved to be a contender, leading 49 laps and setting himself up to be a man on a mission. Until, of course, Mother Nature's mission took over – causing hours of rain delay in the middle of green flag pit stops and leaving multiple cars that were up front on the tail end of the lead lap when the race was restarted. As you would expect in those types of situations, the resulting green flag proved a crash waiting to happen; when the smoke cleared, it was Kenseth, not Gordon, in the garage cleaning up a tangled mess.

The race continued; Gordon recovered, winding up a topsy-turvy day in 5th place. Once again, Kenseth was sitting on the sidelines…in no condition to do anything but wonder what could have been if the tables were turned.

By now, there was a pattern, ready to repeat itself by the time Talladega came around. As Bobby Labonte lost control of his car in the fourth turn - triggering the Big One with 42 laps to go - both Kenseth and Gordon were behind the vicious wreck that would ensue.

Luckily, only one of them made it out unscathed…and it wasn't the No. 17.

"It’s hairy out there," said Gordon after that race, comforted by the winning trophy not far away from his post-race press conference. "We just wanted to play it safe (during the race) until it really counted."

Of course, no amount of "safety" could have prevented the No. 24 from getting smashed should a select few cars have been turned around a little different. But the bottom line remains…at this point, it was the Rainbow Warrior who had captured all the momentum.

Which brings us to Lowe's, the latest brick laid in Gordon's quest to Chase a title. There was 72 laps led, a second straight win, but most of all, two crucial bullets dodged - Gordon not only nearly ran out of gas but could have been popped in the wall by a teammate in Kyle Busch who is merely a teammate in name only at this point. However, Busch held off, the fuel kept chugging, and Gordon kept pushing to the finish.

Behind him, Kenseth sat sullen in the garage area; after leading 32 laps, a spin on the Frontstretch was followed by another series of wrecks. They weren't all his fault, but that wasn't unexpected, either, in a series of unfortunate events that has simply become par for the course.

"I don't know where to start," Kenseth said Saturday night to list his pain of miseries.

Hours later, Gordon was saying the same thing after another trip to Victory Lane.

"I don’t know where to start," he exclaimed. "I’m fired up about this."

"I can’t tell you how many times we tried to give this one away."

But he didn't; instead, it was Kenseth inheriting all the potential sadness, turning it into reality in the worst possible way.

"I have absolutely no excuse," he said from the garage.

Yes, he does. A little luck isn't usually hard to find.

Too bad Gordon's taken this year's all for himself.

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©2000 - 2008 Thomas Bowles and Thanks for visiting the Frontstretch!

10/15/2007 08:36 AM

Great story. Just goes to show that puffing your chest out at victory is a silly thing to do. You can lose your glory almost as fast as you gain it. One could teach a class about so many things from this article. Thanks, TB, for a great story.

10/15/2007 09:46 AM

Certainly you are not claiming that Gordon has been the beneficiary of luck all season long? His 300+ point lead into the Chase and the overwhelming number of top 5 and top 10 finishes attest to much more than sheer luck. Compare Kenseth’s stats to Gordon’s over this longer 26 race period and it is no contest. Clearly luck played a role in the first five chase races but Gordon’s consistently excellent results throughout the entire year merit a fifth championship purely on outstanding performance. The only role luck can play is if bad luck robs him of a title in the remaining five races.

Bill B
10/15/2007 11:21 AM

And that is what’s wrong with the Chase, it puts a premium on luck. Look at it this way; If you flipped a coin 10 times you would be surprised if it came up heads every time but you could still beleive it because, after all, it’s only 10 flips. Now imagine flipping that coin 36 times and it coming up heads every time. Now you would be sure that something was amiss. The only point being that luck has a better chance of evening out over 36 flips than it does over 10 flips.

10/15/2007 05:54 PM

I’ve heard some people say that you make you’re own luck but there are just some instances when it seems like the “racing gods” have it in for some drivers and smile on others. Matt just can’t catch a break.

Brian France Sucks
10/15/2007 06:01 PM

About time for the other shoe to drop on Gordon and Johnson. They’re due for some bad luck; maybe at Martinsville or Atlanta. They’ve been good and very Lucky this year. Here’s to hoping it happens; can’t stand either one, or Chad Knauss.

10/15/2007 09:04 PM

That was excellent. Kenseth has been a dominant force throughout the Chase yet has nothing to show for it. I’m glad someone has taken the time to analyze just how big a part luck plays in the Chase, and give Matt his due.


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