NASCAR Race Weekend Central

Did You Notice? Dodging Bullets on NASCAR’s Confusing Road Ahead

Did You Notice? Hendrick Motorsports leading a new type of charge on restrictor-plate tracks? What got swept under the rug the second Austin Dillon got swept into the air is the way HMS spent much of Daytona running 1-2-3-4 in line. There was one point poor Landon Cassill, part of a single-car program, worked his way up to fifth and had absolutely zero chance of working further forward. How do you break up a four-car pack where all the teams are working in tandem with each other?

That’s the biggest change in plate racing these days, organizations working more closely together than ever to create these three or four-car “stealth tandems” within the larger pack. Every man for himself? More like every team for itself as the individuality of the sport gets lost. You can’t blame Hendrick; they’re playing within the rules, establishing a simple philosophy that resources are far better shared than used apart. It’s been a theory copycatted across the industry, leading to the explosion of multi-car teams, information-sharing and led to impressive results. No one can match the 11 championships won by HMS within the last 20 years – not even the old Richard Petty Enterprises. (Some would say Kevin Harvick (2014) and Tony Stewart’s owner/driver title, earned in 2011 with HMS equipment, makes it 13.)

This philosophy, rarely seen in 1-2-3-4 finishes on track, can actually hurt the competition in plate races. At Daytona and Talladega, the parity of the engine combination means all the cars will be stuck in the pack, running the same speed and fighting for position. But if you’re supposed to trust your teammate, who would you want around you more as you try and navigate this 500-mile speed trap? Suddenly, the ‘90s plate-race system of the past, one where teammates Dale Earnhardt and Mike Skinner would actually work against each other gets replaced by these four-car, behemoth organizations deciding to play nice. Sure, what you’re seeing is two-abreast on television, maybe three, but the relative safety within the pack is much higher. A teammate isn’t as likely to use that run to pass you, right? Or bump you into the corner when it’s unnecessary? There’s a higher self-awareness, one the fans are starting to realize as well.

How do you fix it? Nothing short of splitting up these organizations would work, cutting down the four-car stable which is currently impossible under NASCAR’s private contractor system. To their credit, though, it seems HMS has used their resources to shore up a potential vulnerability in the Chase. How do you avoid getting eliminated from the playoffs at Talladega? (Remember, that’s where Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne were unceremoniously ushered out). The answer is simple; have so much extra horsepower you’re able to run 1-2-3-4 as much as possible, keep from getting passed and stay out of the “Big One” that’s going to erupt at some point over the course of 188 laps.

A quick look at the plate races this year shows HMS engineering spent the time to hit on something. Their dominance has been so extreme they should have swept all three events….

Restrictor Plate Lap Leaders This Season

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 195 (won Talladega, Coke Zero 400)

Jeff Gordon134

Jimmie Johnson – 124

Joey Logano 31 (won Daytona 500)

Denny Hamlin19

Austin Dillon 8

Kasey Kahne – 8

As you can see, Hendrick cars occupy four of the top-seven spots. Combined, they’ve led 83.5% of all laps run at plate tracks this season. It makes them a heavy favorite for Talladega, although mistakes can and still will happen. Kahne, for example got caught up in a wreck Monday morning after a few drafting errors left him vulnerable. But we know what team doesn’t typically make a mistake during the Chase. Here’s a clue: they run out of the 48/88 shop….

Did You Notice? How Sprint Cup cars won’t run their initial 2015 rule package for intermediates again until the Chase? Today’s announcement from NASCAR on rule changes gives us several track-specific “tests” to sort through over the next few months. Each will be designed to increase drag, taking away downforce while making the cars more difficult to handle. No longer will you be able to run wide open at places like Kentucky, Darlington and Indianapolis; you’ll have to use the brakes, like the old days as drivers (not engineers) will make more of a difference during a long green-flag run.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Whichever team hits on these changes, starting at Kentucky this weekend through the regular season finale at Richmond will give us no indication of who will be the favorite come Chase time. Check out why with a look at what’s different….

Kentucky: New rule package, low downforce

New Hampshire: Normal 2015 package

Indianapolis: New rule package, higher drag

Pocono: Normal 2015 package

Watkins Glen: 2015 road course package

Michigan: New rule package, higher drag

Bristol: Normal 2015 package

Darlington: New rule package, low downforce

Richmond: New tire combination (normal 2015 package)

As you can see, there’s a large diversity of different packages to work through with only four races remaining unchanged. Of those four, none of them are 1.5-mile ovals, the type of track we see five times in the postseason including the most important one (Homestead) which decides the champion. Only New Hampshire, the 1-mile oval whose rules remain the same in the Chase, will give us a realistic look at what to expect.

So many questions now as NASCAR seeks changes designed for 2016 and beyond. Look, I totally understand switching back to “old hat,” keeping consistency through the 2015 playoff system. Changing the rules for the postseason virtually throws away how Kevin Harvick, Johnson, Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have made mincemeat out of the field at intermediate tracks. That’s not fair. But won’t it also look weird if the new Kentucky package, rolled out this weekend, is highly competitive and then NASCAR takes it away for the races it claims matter most? How weird will it be for the fans to get more excited – then know the whole time NASCAR’s going back to a package that’s, um, well, boring? And what about the teams, who will have to go the next two months resting on their laurels from places like Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte? Not getting more experience under race conditions will make it difficult for teams with momentum over the summer, like Clint Bowyer’s No. 15 to fully catch up. Success the next two months is good for 2016… not Homestead in November.

On the flip side, how many resources will teams like Harvick’s and Johnson’s want to throw at the new rules, trying to keep pace with likely 2016 changes while making sure they don’t throw away their 2015 advantage? Is it worth it to them to fall behind the next few weeks while working ahead for the Chase, knowing the old rules give them a better chance to come out on top this November?

It’s a whole bunch of strategy questions I expect plenty of different answers to. You have to give kudos to NASCAR, though, for recognizing the aerodynamic problems within the sport and throwing the kitchen sink at it to stop the bleeding. The fixes will be expensive for race teams, already labored with millions in expenses, but over the long-term it must be done for the health of the sport.

Did You Notice? Quick hits before taking off….

Dillon claimed he’s gotten worse “playing football” in defending NASCAR’s restrictor-plate package Tuesday. Clearly, we should be celebrating Dillon’s health along with the fans in the stands. But I would stop short of calling Monday morning an unmitigated success. Anytime a fan gets hurt, we need to be working on fixes. Anytime a driver gets airborne, we need to study how to keep that car on the ground. Anytime a catchfence gets ripped to shreds, we need to focus on a better solution. Anytime mainstream reporters question whether this type of racing should be used, putting a negative spin on the sport, I wouldn’t call that a success. You earn new fans by letting them learn through injuries and whether it’s too dangerous for them to attend in person.

It’s also the third major catchfence incident with these restrictor plates within the last six years. Why are they used? Due to a horrifying 1987 accident with Bobby Allison’s car in which (surprise!) the catchfence was ripped apart. 27-plus years later, we still have a “temp” solution. That’s not a success.

BOWLES: Balancing NASCAR Risk With Reason

It’s been two wrecks, two weeks, and a case of Lady Luck catching up to them. But I worry about the No. 78 team and Truex Jr. Suddenly, NASCAR is throwing new rule packages out like candy, increasing the costs for a single-car team like this one while giving the opportunity for others to catch up. Suddenly, a team with 14 top-10 finishes in 15 races is put in a spot where they need to start from scratch to regain momentum. We’re about to see, over the next month, whether they’ll truly be contenders.

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kb

Was anybody happy with this mess of weekend with the exception of Dale Jr?

messengerfm

As Ryan Newman correctly stated, “NASCAR got exactly what it wanted.” So there you have it, kb. NASCAR was happy with this mess of a weekend because it got a Joonyer win (tainted though it was) and nobody ACTUALLY died during the obligatory Big One at the end. Oh, silly you, for finding fault with exactly the results NASCAR looks for every week.

kb

Yup, you are correct..my rotten attitude needs a adjustment. I am off the take my “blue” reality pill and the happy pill. :) :)

Ken

And it keeps getting worse! As I write this, I fight back tears! I logged onto my computer this morning and see the tweet from Jayski that Buddy Baker is stepping away from his Sirius work as he fights lung cancer. I always liked Buddy, when he was a driver, and when he went into broadcasting. I felt so sorry for him at Talladega in 1975, when he won and his car owner, Bud Moore, instructed everyone not to say a word that Buddy’s friend, Tiny Lund had been killed. But, leave it up to some ignorant reporter to ask Buddy about how he felt when he learned about Tiny. Because Moore had asked everyone to let Buddy enjoy his win before he got the bad news, Buddy didn’t know about Lund. Buddy felt like a ton of bricks fell on him.

But then, on the bright side, at one of the races at New Hampshire being broadcast on the old TNN network, there was an incident, and they were showing Geoff Bodine (I think) rolling backwards. The network was playing someone’s radio transmission and (again, I think) Bodine came over the radio and said something to the effect that the toe setting was having sex. All Buddy said was, “Opps!” Then, Mike Joy went on to apologize for the radio transmission!

God speed, Buddy! We’re all praying for you!

russ

I think most people are interested in the effect that the new aero changes will have starting at Kentucky. But don’t be fooled into thinking it will diminish the impact the engineers have on the sport. In fact I think they will have more effect, as they search for more downforce from the different configuration. Thus the teams with the most resources will have even more of an advantage. It may however give us a different opinion of some of the drivers.

GinaV24

Very sorry to hear the news about Buddy Baker’s illness. I wish him the best and hope for success in fighting against this disease.

As far as the teams racing together, this race was the first time I’ve ever seen the HMS teams work together as a foursome. Yeah in the past they have worked together in pairs but I’ve seen teammates hang each other out to dry at the end, too. My opinion is that HMS made the decision that the best way to optimize points for all the teams and avoid wrecks was to keep the team cars together. Fair? I don’t know, it’s as fair as any other of the craziness that goes on at plate races and in NASCAR these days.

Well I hope that Kentucky rules changes will show some improvement for the racing, but as you say, if they DO work, taking them away for the chase races so we get more boring races on what are already the majority of 1.5 mile boring tracks doesn’t seem like a smart solution.

Yes, having cars in the catchfence and having shrapnel from the fence & the car impacting fans doesn’t seem like a great thing. It beats having the car actually make it into the crowd but let’s face it, this has happened multiple times now since the time when Allison’s car first had that airborne crash and there really haven’t been many changes.

messengerfm

Oh Tommie is worried about the effect the new aero-package will have on his designated underdog, Martin Truex, Jr. Aren’t you the same Tom Bowles who was fired from Sports Illustrated for openly cheering Trevor Bayne at his luck-infused Daytona 500 win? Will you ever learn that journalism requires at least the APPEARANCE of fail play? I guess not.

Upstate24fan

Come on, teams have been working together in the draft forever. Hey didn’t Hendrick finish 1-2-3 in the 1997 Daytona 500? I don’t see the teams doing anything different now. The difference is right now Hendrick has a superior plate package to everyone else and it shows. That isn’t any different than the advantage DEI had a decade ago when the 8 and 15 would always be up front.

I’m glad NASCAR is being aggressive with the rules changes. I wish they would have gone the extra step and took the tapered spacers off this weekend. These areo-rules with full horsepower got the best reviews from the drivers at last year’s Michigan test. Anything to make the drivers have to lift in the corners again.

RH

I disagree that splitting up the 4 car teams is impossible under the private contractor system. If NASCAR can limit teams to 4 cars they can limit teams to 2 cars or 1 car.

Companies/individuals can contract for anything that is not illegal. NASCAR can mandate that a team can only enter 1 car. Teams could attempt to skirt the rules by listing the cars under various owners. However, NASCAR has billions of dollars. I am sure they could hire enough smart lawyers to draft language for the contracts/entry forms/NASCAR licenses for drivers that they could address it.

Teams are the number 1 thing that destroyed the racing.

Chris

I agree RH. Large multi-car teams have really killed the roots of the sport (this includes satellite teams). Back when Roush and Hendrick really got going on multi-car teams there were still a decent amount of small teams that showed up at the tracks but over the years they have slowly disappeared (sort of mirrors what has happened over the years with large corporations and small businesses). Sadly even if, or when NASCAR starts franchising they will never get rid of multi-car teams as they now have too much power within NASCAR.

Bill B

Restrictor plate racing is a joke anyway. The less time you spend analyzing it the better off you are. This year the story is how the Hendrick teams worked together, next year it will be how they wrecked each other.

JohnQ

Amen, remember when you and all your knucklehead buddies sat around trying to figure out how to slow down that muscle car of yours so it wouldn’t out accelerate the old lady next doors Maverick? Of course you don’t. Plate racing is oxymoronic.

GinaV24

LOL

Steve

My concern with this new package being used for just the non Chase races is, what happens if a team runs real well with this new package, makes the Chase with a win or by points, but continues to be out to lunch during the Chase when they go back to the 2015 package? Tony Stewart is the first person that comes to mind in this scenario. Don’t get me wrong, I would rather have better racing immediately, than waiting until 2016, but it is something to think about.

But don’t worry folks, if we go back to the boring 2015 package for the Chase, f last year was any indication, there will be enough fights after each race to keep things lively until Homestead.

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